EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bounces back to near 1.1730 as 20-day EMA remains supportive
EUR/USD rallied back toward 1.1730, supported by the 20-day EMA, as the dollar softened amid mixed US data. The bounce highlights ongoing resilience above the 1.1500 spot level, but the pair remains well below our consensus targets. With the 1.1730 area now tested, the next key resistance lies at the 50-day EMA near 1.1850. The move matters because it consolidates the recent range and keeps the medium-term bullish bias alive, though conviction depends on clearing the 1.1800–1.1850 zone.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for Mar26 is 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and BofA at the lower (1.1700). Today's bounce toward 1.1730 brings spot closer to the consensus, but it still sits roughly 2% below the median. The publisher's technical view aligns more closely with the lower third of our range—BofA and Barclays share that cautious near-term framing.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley stands out as the most bullish at 1.2000 for Mar26, while ING at 1.1900 also sees upside. On the other hand, BofA and Barclays, both at 1.1700, are the most cautious and in line with the headline's near-term support bounce. Goldman and Deutsche Bank sit at the consensus 1.1800, providing a balanced view.
What the data shows
Our recent research 'EUR/USD Consensus Divergence' highlighted that consensus Mar26 targets average 1.1800 while spot is 2% below, creating a potential catch-up trade if technical support holds. The current bounce validates that divergence, but without a clear catalyst, the pair may remain range-bound.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD bounce to 1.1730 supported by 20-day EMA; next resistance at 1.1850.
- 02Consensus Mar26 target 1.1800; spot 2% below implies upside potential.
- 03Morgan Stanley (1.2000) and ING (1.1900) are most bullish; BofA/Barclays (1.1700) are cautious.
- 04Clear break above 1.1800 needed for bullish conviction.
Market implications
Watch for a test of the 50-day EMA near 1.1850. A break above would open the path toward our Mar26 consensus of 1.1800 and potentially Morgan Stanley's 1.2000. Key US data (ISM, NFP) and ECB rhetoric will drive the next move. Positioning around our consensus range suggests a potential squeeze if 1.1800 is reclaimed.
Risks to this view
Failure to hold above the 20-day EMA could lead to a retest of 1.1500 support. A hawkish Fed surprise or renewed USD strength would invalidate the bullish bounce. The contrary view from BofA/Barclays at 1.1700 suggests downside risk if the 1.1730 level breaks.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.