EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles below 1.1700 as bears await 200-EMA breakdown on H4
EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1700 as bears eye a breakdown of the 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, signaling near-term technical momentum favoring USD strength. The pair's rejection at that level reinforces the bearish bias, with a decisive close below the moving average likely to open the path toward 1.1500. This technical setup contrasts with the broader fundamental consensus for EUR appreciation by year-end, highlighting a short-term vs. medium-term tension.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for Mar26 stands at 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and BofA/Barclays at the lower (1.1700). Fxstreet's bearish technical view aligns more closely with the lower third of the range, though the median consensus implies a notable recovery from current spot near 1.1500.
How firms align
Among the firms, JPMorgan (1.1800 Mar26) and ING (1.1900) are relatively neutral to slightly bullish, aligning with the consensus but not aggressively contrary to the near-term bearish momentum. BofA and Barclays, both with Mar26 targets at 1.1700, are the most aligned with Fxstreet's bearish view, as they forecast minimal upside from current levels.
What the data shows
Our recent research 'EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below' highlights the divergence between consensus expectations and spot, suggesting that the market is pricing in a euro recovery that technicals currently reject. This gap leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to further downside if momentum persists.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD rejection at 1.1700 consolidates bearish short-term bias; 200-EMA breakdown would target 1.1500.
- 02Consensus Mar26 target at 1.1800 is 1.7% above current spot, indicating medium-term optimism despite near-term technical weakness.
- 03BofA and Barclays' 1.1700 targets align with the bearish near-term view, while Morgan Stanley's 1.2000 target is the most bullish outlier.
- 04A break below 1.1500 would challenge the consensus recovery narrative and shift medium-term expectations.
Market implications
Watch for a confirmed close below the 200-EMA on the H4 chart; that would likely trigger stop-losses and accelerate selling toward 1.1500. The next key calendar event is the US CPI release, which could reinforce USD strength if inflation beats expectations, further pressuring EUR/USD.
Risks to this view
A hawkish ECB surprise or a sharp deterioration in US data could reverse the bearish momentum. If EUR/USD reclaims 1.1700 and holds above the 200-EMA, the technical setup would weaken, allowing a push toward consensus targets above 1.1800.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.55
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.