Euro: Three paths to higher levels against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank outlines three potential avenues for the euro to appreciate against the US dollar, as the current EUR/USD position at 1.1500 seems to be paving the way for a bullish trajectory. With consensus estimates showing a median target of 1.1700 by March 2026, the question remains whether short-term market dynamics can support such gains. This outlook matters now as traders reassess positions ahead of major economic data releases that could influence eurozone monetary policy.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across 11 firms), with Goldman aligning at 1.1800 and Citi at the lower bound of 1.1300. Commerzbank’s view suggests potential paths to our consensus number, showing alignment with several bullish forecasts from firms like JPMorgan and MUFG.
How firms align
Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan have notably optimistic targets for March 2026, ranging from 1.1800 to 1.2000, indicating a shared bullish sentiment on euro appreciation, potentially driven by favorable economic signals. Notably, our analysis (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path) highlights that current trading levels remain approximately 3% below the consensus target of 1.2000 for December 2026.
What the data shows
Recent insights suggest that if eurozone economic conditions improve, it could bolster the euro further. Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming ECB meetings, which could also influence these projections.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Commerzbank sees paths for EUR/USD pushing towards 1.1700 by March 2026.
- 02Expectation of ECB shifts may support euro strength.
- 03Key upcoming data from eurozone could catalyze moves above current levels.
Market implications
Traders should watch for EUR/USD approaching the 1.1700 level in the coming weeks, with calendar events including ECB meetings potentially serving as catalysts for movement. Our consensus number aligns with current bullish sentiment indicated by major firms.
Risks to this view
Any unexpected economic data out of the eurozone or a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve might significantly reverse expectations, pushing the euro back down against the USD. A failure to meet growth forecasts could also hinder progress towards the 1.1700 target.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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