Euro: Downside risks against US Dollar towards 1.1400 support – BBH
Recent commentary from Brown Brothers Harriman highlights potential downside risks for the Euro against the US Dollar, particularly towards the 1.1400 support level. This contrasts with our consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026, suggesting a divergence between current market perceptions and analysts' forecasts. With the Euro currently sitting at 1.1500, fluctuations near this level will likely impact trader sentiment and positioning as investors weigh macroeconomic indicators ahead.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with projections ranging from 1.1300 to 1.2000. BBH's view aligns more closely with the lower end of this spectrum, indicating a bearish outlook compared to firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS, which maintain projections of 1.2000 for March 2026.
How firms align
Firms such as Goldman Sachs (1.1800), JPMorgan (1.1800), and MUFG (1.1800) represent a stronger bullish stance on the EUR/USD compared to the BBH forecast. Notably, Commerzbank and ING have also revised their targets upward to 1.1900, suggesting that the bearish sentiment reflected by BBH is not widely shared among leading institutions. For further details, please see our reports on goldman, jpmorgan, and commerzbank.
What the data shows
Recent revisions reflect a tendency among various firms to raise their EUR projections, with ING and Commerzbank both looking for 1.1900 in March 2026. This positions us well against the BBH pessimism; for more context, please refer to our insights in /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026 to better understand this divergence.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Resistance at 1.1500 could give way if bearish sentiment intensifies.
- 02Potential to breach 1.1400 support level is a key focus.
- 03Watch for economic indicators impacting central bank policies.
- 04Increased volatility anticipated around upcoming ECB meetings.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1400 support level closely as it represents a critical threshold for the EUR/USD pair. Upcoming economic releases from the Eurozone and the US could significantly sway sentiment and validate or counter the bearish perspective outlined by BBH. Our consensus target of 1.1700 remains a point to reassess as events unfold.
Risks to this view
A shift in ECB policy or stronger-than-expected US economic data could invalidate the bearish forecast. Should key indicators point towards more aggressive monetary tightening in the US, it may buoy the Dollar and challenge the current bullish targets for the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.