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Crude Oil WTI

2026 Projections · 13 Banks

Live$67.00-0.66 (-0.99%)
$66
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

Dispersion & Conviction Analysis

Deep-dive into forecast dispersion, conviction levels, risk-reward asymmetries, and stance distribution across 13 firms.

Conviction Scatter

WTI crude conviction scatter by firm: year-end target ($/bbl), conviction (inverse of bull-bear range), and bull-bear range width.
FirmTargetConvictionRange Width
JPM$61.003.3$30.00
GS$68.003.3$30.00
BofA$60.003.3$30.00
UBS$65.003.6$28.00
Citi$55.003.3$30.00
MS$66.003.3$30.00
DB$58.003.6$28.00
HSBC$73.003.3$30.00
BARC$64.003.3$30.00
ANZ$66.003.4$29.00
MQG$58.003.3$30.00
WFC$65.003.6$28.00
JPMGSBofAUBSCitiMSDBHSBCBARCANZMQGWFC

Dispersion Analysis

Std Deviation

$10.83

Forecast spread

IQR

$6.0

25th-75th pctl

Range

$45

$55–$100

Median

$65

Middle value

Mean

$66.1

Average target

Skew

Bullish

Median vs mean

Target Distribution

$55Mean: $66.1$100

Risk-Reward Matrix

Citi
-$10
+$20
2.00x
DB
-$10
+$18
1.80x
JPM
-$11
+$19
1.73x
BofA
-$12
+$18
1.50x
GS
-$13
+$17
1.31x
MQG
-$13
+$17
1.31x
ANZ
-$13
+$16
1.23x
UBS
-$13
+$15
1.15x
WFC
-$13
+$15
1.15x
MS
-$14
+$16
1.14x
BARC
-$14
+$16
1.14x
HSBC
-$15
+$15
1.00x
Downside risk Upside potential

Quarterly Consensus Path

WTI crude 2026 quarterly consensus path: cross-firm minimum, consensus average, median, and maximum (USD per barrel).
QuarterMinAvgMedianMax
Q1 '26$68.00$70.10$70.00$72.00
Q2 '26$63.00$68.10$68.00$73.00
Q3 '26$57.00$64.70$65.50$74.00
Q4 '26$55.00$63.30$64.50$73.00

Q1 '26

$70.1

$68–$72

Q2 '26

$68.1

$63–$73

Q3 '26

$64.7

$57–$74

Q4 '26

$63.3

$55–$73

WTI-Brent Spread Analysis

MS
$5Brent $71
HSBC
$5Brent $78
JPM
$4Brent $65
GS
$4Brent $72
BofA
$4Brent $64
UBS
$4Brent $69
Citi
$4Brent $59
DB
$4Brent $62
BARC
$4Brent $68
ANZ
$4Brent $70
MQG
$4Brent $62
WFC
$4Brent $69
Mizuho
$0Brent $100

Spread Summary

Average Spread$3.8/bbl
Range$0–$5
Consensus Brent YE$69.9

Implications

  • >Narrow spread consensus ($4-5) suggests stable Atlantic basin dynamics
  • >MS/HSBC wider $5 spread implies tighter non-US supply
  • >Brent typically trades at premium due to global benchmark status

Stance Distribution

WTI crude analyst stance distribution: number of firms in each stance category (very-bullish through very-bearish).
StanceFirm CountOf Total
Very Bullish00 / 13
Bullish22 / 13
Neutral66 / 13
Bearish44 / 13
Very Bearish11 / 13
Very Bullish0 firms
Bullish2 firms
HSBCMizuho
Neutral6 firms
GSUBSMSBARCANZWFC
Bearish4 firms
JPMBofADBMQG
Very Bearish1 firm
Citi

Analysis computed from 13 firm forecasts · Spot: $67/bbl · Consensus YE: $66.1

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