GBP/USD Forecast Update from Morgan Stanley: "Upside Surprise" - Pound Sterling Live
The desk sees a bullish outlook for GBP/USD, pointing to an upside surprise in Morgan Stanley's latest forecast which projects a Mar-26 target of 1.3800 and a Dec-26 target of 1.4700. This contrasts with the current consensus of 1.3450 for Mar-26, demonstrating a significant divergence in expectations. Per the full note source, the latest revisions suggest that a strong recovery in the UK economy could support further gains for the pound. Central bank actions, particularly from the Bank of England, will be critical in shaping the trajectory of GBP/USD, particularly in the context of rising rates versus a dovish Fed stance.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a significant bullish move for GBP/USD, driven by Morgan Stanley's optimistic forecasts. The latest projection sets a bullish tone that deviates from the prevailing market sentiment, reflecting confidence in the UK economic recovery and potential rate increases by the Bank of England.
Supporting this stance, Morgan Stanley's target of 1.3800 for March and even more aggressive targets of 1.4200 and 1.4700 further out highlight their belief in substantial appreciation for the pound. This stands against a backdrop where consensus sees a more modest appreciation to 1.3450 in the same timeframe.
Where it sits in our coverage
According to our internal coverage, the current consensus for GBP/USD is 1.3450, with a range between 1.3200 and 1.3800. Some specific targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.3700 (Mar-26) - goldman: 1.3300 (Mar-26) - morganstanley: 1.3800 (Mar-26)
This Morgan Stanley view aligns with the higher end of the consensus targets, indicating a more bullish outlook compared to most banks which exhibit more caution in their targets.
How other firms see it
Firms such as morganstanley, jpmorgan, and deutschebank appear aligned with a bullish stance, setting aggressive targets of 1.3800 and above for Mar-26. Conversely, firms like citi and bnpparibas show a more bearish outlook, with targets as low as 1.3200 for Mar-26.
The trajectory of GBP/USD is closely interlinked with developments in GBP/EUR, as the relative strength of the pound could be affected by broader sentiment in European markets amid ECB actions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Morgan Stanley projects GBP/USD to reach 1.3800 by March 2026.
- 02Consensus target for GBP/USD is lower at 1.3450, indicating divergence in expectations.
- 03The bullish outlook is supported by anticipated economic recovery in the UK.
- 04Market positioning and central bank policies will be key factors influencing GBP/USD.
Market implications
Traders should watch the GBP/USD resistance levels closely around 1.3800 as indicated by Morgan Stanley's forecasts. Market reactions to any hints of tightening from the BoE could also provide positioning signals ahead of any future adjustments.
Risks to this view
A more dovish outlook from the Bank of England or disappointing economic data could invalidate this bullish call, leading to a price correction in GBP/USD back towards lower consensus targets. Additionally, any unexpected shifts in Fed policy could also impact the pound's trajectory.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
Cable at 1.3434: Consensus Sees 1.355 but the Range Spans 0.23
Spot GBP/USD trades 0.86% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, masking a 0.23 dispersion that reflects a genuine policy-path disagreement.
Cable at 1.3421: Consensus Sees 1.355 but the Range Tells the Real Story
GBP/USD trades 0.95% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, but a 0.23-figure dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence path.
Cable at 1.3435: Consensus Sees 1.355 but the Spread Is 23 Figures Wide
Spot trades 0.85% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, masking a 23-figure dispersion that reflects genuine disagreement on BoE-vs-Fed sequencing.