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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.

Fed & the USD: common questions

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
2026-10-15	Fed Hammack Speech	US	Med	—	—
2026-10-16	Export Prices MoM (Sep)	US	Med	1%	0.6%
2026-10-16	Import Prices MoM (Sep)	US	Med	0.8%	0.7%
2026-10-16	Industrial Production MoM (Sep)	US	Med	0.4%	0%
2026-10-16	Budget Balance (Sep)	US	Med	-29 B	-167 B
2026-10-16	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	US	Med	—	58.1 K
2026-10-16	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	US	Med	—	-154.1 K
2026-10-16	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	US	Med	—	99.1 K

When is the next Fed meeting?

The next Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision is scheduled for Oct 28. Because Federal Reserve sets monetary policy for the USD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for USD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their USD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' USD targets shift before and after Fed decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.

What is the Fed's current policy stance?

Federal Reserve's current policy lean reads as hawkish, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the USD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for USD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the Fed path and translates it into where the USD consensus and its dispersion sit.

How does the Fed affect the USD?

Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Federal Reserve's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their USD targets. Relative policy paths (the Fed versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which Fed actions transmit into the USD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published USD forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the Fed outlook evolves.

See the USD bank consensus and how it shifts around Fed decisions

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