Fed
Federal Reserve
Federal funds (upper)
3.75%
as of 2026-06-21
Last decision
HELD
Next meeting
Jul 29
T-37d
Bias
HAWKISH
The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate and conducts monetary policy for the United States under a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times per year to set policy.
Why It Matters for FX Markets
Sets the federal funds target range for the world's reserve currency. The Fed's decisions anchor global discount rates for nearly every other major economy and influence the cost of dollar funding worldwide.
Meeting Schedule (2026)
Jan 28-29Mar 18May 6Jun 17Jul 29Sep 16-17Oct 28Dec 9
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Primary Currency
USD
Cross-firm view, consensus targets, and live rate
Federal funds (upper)
3.75%
As of 2026-06-21
DXY 2026 consensus
95.00
median of 17 banks
Next macro event
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
US Inflation & Rates
The macro inputs behind every Fed decision
CPI inflation (YoY)
4.2%
May 2026 reading
Effective fed funds
3.63%
May 2026 average
10Y treasury yield
4.46%
Benchmark long rate
CPI year-over-year inflation against the effective federal funds rate. The dashed line marks the Fed's 2% inflation target — the gap between the two lines frames how restrictive policy is.
Recent Commentary on Fed
Updated 3 days ago5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
MUFG EMEA
FX Crosscurrents: The Impact of Global Central Bank Decisions
The desk believes that the recent decisions made by global central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, will lead to further volatility in the dollar and increased divergence in FX pairs. Per the…
ING THINK
THINK Ahead: The case for rate cuts
The desk is positioning for potential rate cuts to re-enter the conversation sooner than expected. Per the full note from James Smith, the consensus among market participants seemingly discounts the…
ING THINK
FX Daily: US holiday offers Japan intervention window
The desk interprets recent commentary as indicating that the current USD/JPY level presents a unique opportunity for Japanese authorities to intervene in foreign exchange markets, particularly given…
ING THINK
Why we don’t think the Fed will hike rates
The desk believes the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates based on the diverging perspectives within the FOMC and a favorable inflation outlook over the next year. Per the full note by James…
JPMORGAN GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Rates: Inflation Markets in Europe, the UK and the US
The desk believes that inflation markets are settling into a more stable phase as recent trends in the euro area, UK, and US suggest easing pressures on breakeven rates. Per the full note by J.P.…
Fed Hawkish/Dovish Trajectory
100 statements scored, Nov 2025 → May 2026
Most hawkish: May 11, 2026 (Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent, score +75)
Most dovish: Apr 30, 2026 (Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: ECB press conference -…, score -35)
Firm Coverage
Reports referencing Fed across covered research desks
Related Coverage
Related FX Research
Updated 1 day agoGBP/USDgbp cable
GBP/USD Consensus Targets 1.35 by Dec-2026, Spot Sits 1.97% Below
Cable trades at 1.3235 against a 21-firm median Dec-2026 target of 1.35, a 1.97% gap that hinges on the relative pace…
Read research →NZD/USDnzdusd rbnz
NZD/USD Trades 3.9% Below 0.60 Consensus as RBNZ-Fed Gap Widens
NZD/USD spot at 0.5768 sits 3.87% below the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 0.60, with an 0.08 range separating ANZ's 0.64…
Read research →USD/CADusdcad boc
USD/CAD at 1.3933: Consensus Targets 1.35 by Dec-2026
USD/CAD spot sits 3.21% above the 20-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 1.35, with a 0.10 dispersion range signalling…
Read research →Recent News on Fed
Updated 8 hr ago
fmp_forex
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Danske Bank Targets 1.13 Within Six Months
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has fallen below the 1.15 level this month as investors continue to favour…
Read article →
fmp_forex
EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week | June 22, 2026
The euro started the week on a softer footing against the dollar, surrendering part of Friday's rebound as investors…
Read article →
fmp_forex
Euro weakens against US Dollar as hawkish Fed bets hog limelight
Euro weakens against US Dollar as hawkish Fed bets hog limelight
Read article →
fmp_forex
EUR/USD weekly outlook: Will the dollar extend its post FOMC gains?
This weekly EUR/USD outlook article was written before the FX markets closed on Friday. At the time of writing, the…
Read article →
fmp_forex
Euro steadies as the US Dollar eases, but hawkish Fed bets limit upside
Euro steadies as the US Dollar eases, but hawkish Fed bets limit upside
Read article →FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.