Nordic economies show resilience as corporates resume deal activity
The Nordic economies are displaying surprising resilience as corporate entities are renewing their engagement in deal-making activities, signifying a shift in sentiment amidst geopolitical headwinds. As highlighted in the Nordea Talks event, corporate lending, M&A, and capital markets (DCM and ECM) services are witnessing renewed demand, suggesting that corporates are ready to invest again despite uncertainties. Per the full note source, this uptick is encouraged by Nordea's strategic ambitions that include a target return on equity exceeding 15% by 2030. While optimists focus on these positive indicators, skepticism remains regarding external geopolitical risks and domestic economic factors that might counteract this rebound.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the resurgence in deal-making activity across the Nordic region reflects underlying economic resilience and robust corporate confidence. Per the full note source, this renewed activity is manifesting in various sectors, particularly in corporate lending and M&A, which moved away from earlier caution.
Key insights from Petteri Änkilä, Head of Large Corporates & Institutions at Nordea, emphasize that despite constant geopolitical turbulence, corporates are beginning to commit capital again. This transition is encapsulated in the statement: "Corporates are proving resilient to the constant flow of bad news on geopolitics and are starting to invest again." A pivotal indicator of this sentiment is Nordea's ambitious goal of achieving over 15% return on equity alongside a cost-to-income ratio of 40-42% by 2030.
Where it sits in our coverage
Given the absence of specific internal coverage data for Nordic currencies, we cannot delineate how our targets align with those of other firms. However, this outlook generally suggests a rising trajectory for the Nordic currencies if corporate deal activity continues its upward trend.
How other firms see it
Without explicit internal targets, perspective on Nordic currencies remains undefined at this time. However, trends in corporate activity typically correlate with broader market perceptions of stability in regional currencies.
What the calendar says
Currently, there are no upcoming high-impact events that may influence Nordic currencies in the immediate term, suggesting that traders should focus on the evolving situation within catalyzing corporate sentiment and deal-making activity.
Key takeaways
- 01Nordic corporate sentiment is improving, leading to increased demand for lending and M&A.
- 02Nordea projects ambitious financial targets reflecting confidence in economic resilience.
- 03Geopolitical risks persist but are being overshadowed by renewed investment activity.
- 04Corporate willingness to invest again is a critical indicator for future economic stability in the region.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the upcoming deal activity and corporate earnings in the Nordic region, which can influence currency valuations. A continuation of this positive trend may support a stronger NOK and SEK against their peers.
Risks to this view
Potential triggers that could undermine this bullish view include significant escalations in geopolitical tensions, or unfavorable economic data releases that might shake investor confidence. Additionally, any shifts in central bank monetary policy could dramatically alter the investment landscape.
Events Nordic economies show resilience as corporates resume deal activity 22-05-2026 3 min to read International bank partners gathered at Nordea Talks on 20 May in Copenhagen for insights on Nordic market momentum, the economic outlook and the strategic shifts reshaping payments, funding and corporate investment across the region. Corporate lending is up, and demand for M&A, DCM and ECM services is picking up across the Nordic region, signalling renewed confidence among businesses despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. This was one of the key messages from our annual Nordea Talks event on 20 May, where international bank partners gathered for strategic dialogue on the Nordic financial landscape, economic outlook and the forces reshaping global markets.
From caution to investment Petteri Änkilä , Head of Large Corporates & Institutions and member of the Group Leadership Team, highlighted a shift in corporate sentiment across the region. "Corporates are proving resilient to the constant flow of bad news on geopolitics and are starting to invest again," Änkilä said. "Demand is picking up not only in lending and DCM but also in M&A and ECM." Änkilä outlined Nordea's strategy built on three pillars – growth, offering and scale – with ambitious 2030 targets including over 15% return on equity and a cost-to-income ratio of 40-42%. Petteri Änkilä presented Nordea's 2030 strategy at Nordea Talks 2026 Corporates are proving resilient to the constant flow of bad news on geopolitics and are starting to invest again. Petteri Änkilä, Head of Large Corporates & Institutions and member of the Group Leadership Team at Nordea Nordic economies more resilient than expected The traditional "Economist Battle" featuring Nordea's economists from across the Nordic region – Helge Pedersen , Torbjörn Isaksson , Kjetil Olsen , and Juho Kostiainen – revealed economic resilience across all four markets.
Finland experienced the highest growth in the euro zone in the first quarter. Sweden’s overall exports have increased despite declines to the US. Norway's seafood exports increased last year, while Denmark continues to benefit from its pharmaceutical sector strength.
Nordea economists Juho Kostiainen, Kjetil Olsen, Helge Pedersen and Torbjörn Isaksson gearing up for the traditional "Economist Battle" Payments transformation accelerating Kirsi Wiitala , Head of Transaction Banking, outlined the forces reshaping Nordic payments, including instant cross-border payments, digital currencies and evolving regulatory requirements. "We want to offer you simplified access to the Nordics – to be your gateway bank," Wiitala said. Europe must step up, says Jyrki Katainen In a fireside chat, Victoria Barbary , Senior Advisor to Milken Institute, and Jyrki Katainen , Head of Group Public and Regulatory Affairs at Nordea and former Prime Minister of Finland, emphasised the need for European companies to take greater responsibility for Europe’s direction. "We cannot afford intellectual laziness anymore. Companies are corporate citizens with rights and duties.
We need to take responsibility and fight for our own future," Katainen said. A fireside chat on geopolitics with Victoria Barbary, Senior Advisor to Milken Institute, and Jyrki Katainen, Head of Group Public and Regulatory Affairs at Nordea Partnership-driven growth Jacob Strauss , Head of International Institutions, closed the event by reinforcing Nordea's partnership philosophy: “We want to be an extension of your team, and for you to be the same for us. That kind of partnership is how we’ll grow together.” Get the latest insights delivered to your inbox Sign up for the Corporate Insights newsletter 25-02-2022 The Corporate Insights newsletter sums up the top business insights and ideas from Nordea experts and beyond.
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