Are US Treasuries no longer ‘safe haven’?
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Neutral | 1.1450 |
Citi | Bearish | 1.1000 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.1800 |
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Economy Are US Treasuries no longer ‘safe haven’? 15-04-2025 During market turbulence, US government bonds tend to be a “safe haven.” But the past week showed something completely different. On 9 April, when Trump’s new tariffs were to take effect, investors sold off US governmen
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4 itemsUS Treasuries losing the control they had
The desk believes that US Treasuries are losing their historical influence over broader market dynamics, potentially indicating a shift in risk sentiment among investors. Per the full note from ING Economics, the weakening control of Treasuries suggests that traditional correlations with other asset classes may be breaking down. This reflects a broader erosion of confidence in Treasuries, particularly amid recent volatility and changing economic outlooks. As market participants recalibrate their strategies, it remains essential to monitor how these shifts impact currency valuations, particularly in USD pairs.
Foreign investors still buying UST bonds
The desk observes that despite a temporary halt in the dollar's upward momentum, foreign private investors are significantly increasing their purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds, which is a critical factor in the ongoing dynamics of the FX market. Per the full note from MUFG EMEA, this buying activity offsets the selling pressure from foreign central banks, indicating a robust demand for USTs. This trend is particularly relevant as it suggests a shift in investor sentiment and potential changes in hedging strategies against USD exposures. With no high-impact events on the calendar for the next month, this buying trend could continue to influence the dollar's performance against major currencies.
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