CitiGroup Euro To Australian Dollar Forecast: Sell EUR/AUD Target 1.68 - Exchange Rates UK

What the desk is arguing

Citi's sell recommendation on EUR/AUD with a 1.68 target reflects a thesis of euro underperformance relative to the Australian dollar. The desk likely cites the ECB's dovish stance versus the RBA's hawkish hold, as well as Australia's commodity export advantage.

Supporting evidence includes the RBA's resistance to rate cuts amid sticky inflation, while the ECB faces growing recession risks. Additionally, iron ore and energy prices remain supportive for AUD, contrasting with eurozone industrial weakness.

Implicitly, Citi is rejecting the view that a global slowdown will drag AUD lower, arguing instead that the euro faces greater structural headwinds from political fragmentation and energy dependence.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus EUR/AUD target and range are unavailable as we lack specific internal coverage data for this cross. Citi's bearish EUR/AUD view does not align with any firm-level consensus we track, given the absence of published targets.

Among our tracked firms, no specific EUR/AUD targets were provided in the input data for comparison. This limits our ability to benchmark Citi's forecast against the broader street view.

How other firms see it

No other firms with explicit EUR/AUD stances were provided in the input data. In the absence of additional commentary, Citi's view stands as an isolated call. Typically, a contrarian view would come from banks favoring euro resilience on narrowing rate differentials, but such data is unavailable here.