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RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia

RBAAustraliaAsia-Pacific·AUD

Cash rate

4.10%

Next meeting

Jul 8

T-16d

Bias

NEUTRAL

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the cash rate target and conducts monetary policy for Australia, with mandates covering price stability, full employment, and economic prosperity. The Monetary Policy Board meets to decide policy through the year.

Meeting Schedule (2026)

Feb 18Apr 1May 20Jul 8Aug 19Oct 7Nov 24Dec 9

Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.

Primary Currency
AUD
Cross-firm view, consensus targets, and live rate

Cash rate

4.10%

AUD 2026 consensus

0.70

median of 23 banks

AUD net longs (CFTC)

42,292

latest as of

-16,508 WoW

Next macro event

S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)

Upcoming Macro Calendar — Australia

Next 8 high+medium impact events (next 30d)

DateEventCountryImpactConsensusPrevious
S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)AUMed4948.7
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)AUMed5050.7
Inflation Rate MoM (May)AUMed-0.3%0.4%
Inflation Rate YoY (May)AUMed4.4%4.2%
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (May)AUMed3.5%3.4%
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM (May)AUMed0.3%0.3%
RBA Hauser SpeechAUMed
Full Time Employment Chg (May)AUMed-10.7 K

Recent Commentary on RBA

Updated 6 days ago

5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available

BIS SPEECHES

Holta Zaçaj: Keynote speech - Balkan Payment Forum 2026

The desk interprets Ms. Holta Zaçaj's keynote at the Balkan Payment Forum as a signal of a progressive shift in regional payment infrastructure, emphasizing Albania's central role in facilitating…

central-bankMS

RBA Hawkish/Dovish Trajectory

100 statements scored, Apr 2026 → May 2026

Most hawkish: May 11, 2026 (Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent, score +75)

Most dovish: Apr 30, 2026 (Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: ECB press conference -…, score -35)

Bank Consensus on AUD

Aggregated 2026 year-end target across 23 sell-side firms

Median vs spot: -0.8%

Median
0.70
Spread
0.10
Top Bull
BNS0.75
Top Bear
Mizuho0.65

CFTC Positioning — AUD

Updated 13 days ago

Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for RBA

Latest net

42,292

AUD non-commercial contracts

WoW change

-16,508

-16,508 WoW

8-week trend

oldest → newest

Firm Coverage

Reports referencing RBA across covered research desks

Related Coverage

Related FX Research

Updated 12 days ago
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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.