FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Cash rate
4.60%
as of 2026-10-29
Next meeting
Dec 7-8
T-30d
Bias
HAWKISH
The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the cash rate target and conducts monetary policy for Australia, with mandates covering price stability, full employment, and economic prosperity. The Monetary Policy Board meets to decide policy through the year.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Cash rate
4.60%
As of 2026-10-29
AUD 2026 consensus
0.71
median of 24 banks
AUD net longs (CFTC)
50,106
latest as of
Next macro event
RBA Hunter Speech
AUD/USD spot sits 1.3% below the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.71, with an unusually wide 0.08 dispersion signalling…
Read research →AUD/USD trades at 0.7023, just 0.32% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.70, masking an 8-cent dispersion that will…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Hunter Speech | AU | Med | — | — | |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov) | AU | Med | 78.3 | 80.4 | |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov) | AU | High | -2.6% | -4.7% | |
| NAB Business Confidence (Oct) | AU | High | -14 | -13 | |
| Investment Lending for Homes (Q3) | AU | Med | -14% | -10.2% | |
| Home Loans MoM (Q3) | AU | Med | — | -1.9% | |
| Home Loans QoQ (Q3) | AU | Med | -6% | -1.9% | |
| RBA Meeting Minutes | AU | High | — | — |
vs prior statement from
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The Australian dollar (AUD) faces a critical juncture as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, marking its fifth hike this year. However, with this…
The desk anticipates a tightening action from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its upcoming meeting, despite Deutsche Bank's dissenting view. As highlighted in the note by Eamonn Sheridan,…
The desk anticipates a significant divergence from market expectations ahead of the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. Per the full note [source], Deutsche Bank's lone call for a hold…
The desk views the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting as a critical event for the Australian dollar, particularly following JPMorgan's recent endorsement of a rate hike at the November…
Lead — The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points, bringing its benchmark to 4.85% as inflation pressures persist. This rate decision coincides with a critical…
100 statements scored, Oct 2026 → Nov 2026
Most hawkish: Nov 3, 2026 (Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy…, score +50)
Most dovish: Nov 3, 2026 (The path back to 2 % has become less comfortable, score -50)
Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for RBA
Latest net
50,106
AUD non-commercial contracts
WoW change
+1,692
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Reports referencing RBA across covered research desks
AUD/USD trades at 0.7036, 0.52% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.70, with an 800-pip dispersion range signalling…

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, the highest since 2008 after…
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The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision was in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters, and marked…
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Outside the U.S., interest-rate decisions are due from the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, Australia's RBA and…
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Criticism in the press doesn't change what's right, JPMorgan Chase CEO says.
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Trump's Housing and Urban Development is seeking to crack down on race-based lending, calling it a potential violation…
Read article →The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision is scheduled for Dec 7-8. Because Reserve Bank of Australia sets monetary policy for the AUD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for AUD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their AUD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' AUD targets shift before and after RBA decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Reserve Bank of Australia's current policy lean reads as hawkish, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the AUD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for AUD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the RBA path and translates it into where the AUD consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their AUD targets. Relative policy paths (the RBA versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which RBA actions transmit into the AUD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published AUD forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the RBA outlook evolves.