Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.

RBA & the AUD: common questions

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
2026-10-16	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	AU	Med	—	-98.6 K
2026-10-22	S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)	AU	Med	51.1 Points	51.9 Points
2026-10-22	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	AU	Med	49.4 Points	49.6 Points
2026-10-28	Median CPI MoM (Sep)	AU	High	0.3%	0.3%
2026-10-28	RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Sep)	AU	High	3.6%	3.6%
2026-10-28	Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)	AU	Med	0.6%	0.4%
2026-10-28	Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)	AU	Med	4.1%	4%
2026-10-28	RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Q3)	AU	High	3.5%	3.6%

When is the next RBA meeting?

The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision is scheduled for Nov 2-3. Because Reserve Bank of Australia sets monetary policy for the AUD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for AUD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their AUD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' AUD targets shift before and after RBA decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.

What is the RBA's current policy stance?

Reserve Bank of Australia's current policy lean reads as hawkish, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the AUD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for AUD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the RBA path and translates it into where the AUD consensus and its dispersion sit.

How does the RBA affect the AUD?

Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their AUD targets. Relative policy paths (the RBA versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which RBA actions transmit into the AUD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published AUD forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the RBA outlook evolves.

See the AUD bank consensus and how it shifts around RBA decisions

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Reserve Bank of Australia

Meeting Schedule (2026)

Policy-rate trajectory

Upcoming Macro Calendar — Australia

Bank Consensus on AUD

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RBA & the AUD: common questions

When is the next RBA meeting?

What is the RBA's current policy stance?

How does the RBA affect the AUD?