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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
Cash rate
4.35%
as of 2026-07-23
Next meeting
Aug 19
T-12d
Bias
NEUTRAL
The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the cash rate target and conducts monetary policy for Australia, with mandates covering price stability, full employment, and economic prosperity. The Monetary Policy Board meets to decide policy through the year.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Cash rate
4.35%
As of 2026-07-23
AUD 2026 consensus
0.70
median of 25 banks
AUD net longs (CFTC)
27,618
latest as of
Next macro event
CFTC AUD speculative net positions
AUD/USD trades 0.69% above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.70, with a 0.10 dispersion range signalling deep…
Read research →AUD/USD trades at 0.7033, just 0.47% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.70, leaving the pair broadly in line with…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC AUD speculative net positions | AU | Med | — | -40 K | |
| NAB Business Confidence (Jul) | AU | High | -6 | -5 | |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | AU | Med | — | — | |
| Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | AU | High | — | 4.35% | |
| Interest Rate Decision | AU | High | 4.6% | 4.35% | |
| RBA Rate Statement | AU | Med | — | — | |
| RBA Press Conference | AU | Med | — | — | |
| NAB Business Confidence (Jul) | AU | High | — | -5 |
vs prior statement from
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to maintain its current interest rate hold throughout the remainder of the year, as broader inflation trends indicate a stronger-than-expected easing in…
The desk views the resilience of the CIS-4 economies as a key factor in their financial outlook for the second half of 2026, despite persisting inflation risks and external geopolitical pressures.…
The desk believes that while the verbal intervention risk from Japan is rising, it does not currently indicate an imminent yen-buying operation. This perspective aligns with MUFG's assertion that…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, emphasizing a prudent stance amid persistent inflation pressures and slowing growth. Per the full note from ing-think, the RBA's…
The desk interprets the outlook for the CIS-4, particularly Armenia and Azerbaijan, as increasingly favorable due to domestic resilience amidst a backdrop of global inflationary pressures. Per the…
100 statements scored, Apr 2026 → May 2026
Most hawkish: May 11, 2026 (Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent, score +75)
Most dovish: Apr 30, 2026 (Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: ECB press conference -…, score -35)
Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for RBA
Latest net
27,618
AUD non-commercial contracts
WoW change
+2,830
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Reports referencing RBA across covered research desks
AUD/USD trades at 0.6941, roughly 0.84% below the 24-firm Dec-2026 median of 0.70, with a 0.10 dispersion reflecting…
The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision is scheduled for Aug 19. Because Reserve Bank of Australia sets monetary policy for the AUD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for AUD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their AUD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' AUD targets shift before and after RBA decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Reserve Bank of Australia's current policy lean reads as neutral, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the AUD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for AUD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 35 major banks read the RBA path and translates it into where the AUD consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their AUD targets. Relative policy paths (the RBA versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which RBA actions transmit into the AUD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published AUD forecasts of 35 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the RBA outlook evolves.