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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
Cash rate
4.35%
as of 2026-09-10
Next meeting
Sep 28-29
T-7d
Bias
NEUTRAL
The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the cash rate target and conducts monetary policy for Australia, with mandates covering price stability, full employment, and economic prosperity. The Monetary Policy Board meets to decide policy through the year.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Cash rate
4.35%
As of 2026-09-10
AUD 2026 consensus
0.71
median of 24 banks
AUD net longs (CFTC)
49,779
latest as of
Next macro event
RBA Hunter Speech
AUD/USD trades at 0.7125, effectively in line with the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion range…
Read research →AUD/USD spot at 0.7132 is virtually in line with the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion signals deep…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Hunter Speech | AU | Med | — | — | |
| S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | AU | Med | 52.5 Points | 53.2 Points | |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | AU | Med | 51.7 Points | 52 Points | |
| Employment Change (Aug) | AU | High | 20 K | -15.8 K | |
| Unemployment Rate (Aug) | AU | High | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
| Full Time Employment Chg (Aug) | AU | Med | — | 16.3 K | |
| CFTC AUD speculative net positions | AU | Med | — | -38.9 K | |
| Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | AU | High | — | 4.35% |
vs prior statement from
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The desk expresses caution regarding the recent strength of the Japanese yen, suggesting that the ongoing rally is heavily reliant on optimistic expectations of tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ)…
Per the full note [source], J.P. Morgan's FX podcast returned to its 'Dollar Debate Corner' after a strong U.S. employment report, with Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya sparring over the…
The desk observes a sustained bullish outlook for currencies in commodity-exporting CIS markets, driven by higher fuel prices and increased carry trade activity. Per the full note [source],…
The prevailing sentiment among economists indicates a high likelihood of an RBA rate hike within the year, driven by persistent inflation concerns. Per the full note [source], six out of seven major…
The desk interprets Morgan Stanley's bullish outlook on the Australian dollar against the euro as a favorable carry trade opportunity, bolstered by a notable increase in the interest rate…
100 statements scored, Apr 2026 → May 2026
Most hawkish: May 11, 2026 (Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent, score +75)
Most dovish: Apr 30, 2026 (Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: ECB press conference -…, score -35)
Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for RBA
Latest net
49,779
AUD non-commercial contracts
WoW change
+117
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Reports referencing RBA across covered research desks
AUD/USD trades at 0.7199, 1.4% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with a 0.10 dispersion range signalling deep…
The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision is scheduled for Sep 28-29. Because Reserve Bank of Australia sets monetary policy for the AUD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for AUD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their AUD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' AUD targets shift before and after RBA decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Reserve Bank of Australia's current policy lean reads as neutral, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the AUD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for AUD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 37 major banks read the RBA path and translates it into where the AUD consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their AUD targets. Relative policy paths (the RBA versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which RBA actions transmit into the AUD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published AUD forecasts of 37 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the RBA outlook evolves.