MUFG Pound-to-Australian Dollar Forecast: Sell GBP/AUD Target 1.93 - Exchange Rates UK

What the desk is arguing

MUFG recommends selling GBP/AUD targeting 1.93, indicating expectations for Australian dollar outperformance. The thesis likely hinges on divergent monetary policy outlooks, with the RBA potentially maintaining higher rates than the BoE.

Supporting evidence may include relative commodity price dynamics and Australia's trade surplus. The desk implicitly rejects the view that UK economic resilience will support the pound.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for GBP/AUD is around 2.00, with a firm spread of 1.93–2.10. MUFG's bearish view sits at the lower end of our range, aligning with a minority of forecasters.

Specific firms and their published targets include: - Barclays: 1.98 (Dec-26) - JPMorgan: 2.05 (Dec-26) - Goldman Sachs: 2.01 (Dec-26)

How other firms see it

Barclays aligns with MUFG's bearish stance, targeting 1.98. Conversely, JPMorgan is contrary with a higher target of 2.05, reflecting a more optimistic view on the pound.

Other firms like Goldman Sachs are relatively neutral at 2.01, sitting between the two extremes.