EUR/USD falls to fresh five-week low as dollar firms in final stretch of the week
At a Glance
Lead — The desk is bearish on EUR/USD, anticipating further declines as the pair has broken below the key 200-day moving average, now trading at 1.1630. Per the full note source, this marks a significant shift as the euro has been range-bound since mid-April, and the geopolitical backdrop surrounding the US-Iran conflict adds to the uncertainty. With the potential for a test of the 1.1500 mark looming, traders should remain vigilant. The consensus target suggests a bearish outlook, with key levels to monitor in the coming weeks.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a critical juncture for EUR/USD, highlighting the recent drop to 1.1630 as indicative of a broader bearish trend. The breakdown below the 200-day moving average, previously a support level, signals potential for further declines, particularly if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.
The significance of this price action is underscored by the fact that the euro has been trapped in a range between 1.1800 and the 200-day moving average since mid-April. As noted, the current trajectory suggests a possible test of the 1.1500 level if no positive developments emerge from the Middle East over the weekend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Key firms contributing to this outlook include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of the range, while bofa presents a more bearish stance at the lower end. The desk's bearish outlook is consistent with the prevailing sentiment among these firms.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with the desk's bearish perspective, anticipating further weakness in EUR/USD. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for the euro against the dollar.
Traders should also keep an eye on related currency pairs such as USD/JPY and GBP/USD, as movements in these pairs may reflect broader market sentiment influenced by geopolitical developments and central bank policies.
What the calendar says
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EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Neutral | 1.1450 |
Citi | Bearish | 1.1000 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.1800 |
From the original
The currency pair is now down 0.3% on the day to 1.1630 levels as we look to get into European trading later. While that doesn't seem like much, the significance is more so in the price action and the charts this week. The euro has been trading in a bit of a range against the dol