How Quickly Will Oil Normalize?
From the original
My target for Brent - if we get a peace deal - is $85 and we're well on our way to that
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ING’s commodities desk warns that oil’s current dip below $90/bbl is fragile, as Trump’s signal of an imminent Iran deal may prove premature. The desk frames this as a temporary reprieve, noting that without a verified ceasefire, supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf will push Brent to $120-130/bbl by late July. The broader currency implications are limited for now, but further oil upside would strengthen the USD against commodity-linked and EM currencies.
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UBS's forecast indicating Brent crude oil prices settling between $65 and $70 suggests a significant drop in risk premiums previously supporting higher prices. This shift could stem from easing geopolitical tensions and increased production from major oil-exporting nations, contributing to a more stable oil market environment. As risk factors diminish, the pricing dynamics in oil markets will likely adjust accordingly, possibly influencing FX movements related to oil-exporting currencies.