The Madness of EU Transshipments to Russia

Russia's Massive Oil Price Windfall

Global Commodities: Oil glut paves way for stronger sanctions. If enforced

The desk posits that the ongoing sanctions against Russian crude oil production are likely to create a more significant impact on global oil markets, particularly as nearly 70% of Russian crude is now under sanctions. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, while Russia has adapted by using offshore traders, the complexities of these arrangements are increasing costs and slowing down settlement times. This situation could lead to tighter supply dynamics in the medium term, particularly as Indian imports are projected to decline by 400,000 barrels per day (kbd). The consensus among firms suggests a cautious outlook, with targets ranging from 1.04 to 1.10 for the coming months.

The Commodities Feed: Supply worries remain as US extends Russian oil waiver

Lead — The extension of the U.S. waiver on Russian oil imports reflects ongoing concerns about global supply dynamics, with the potential to impact various asset classes, including currencies. Per the full note from ING Economics, this development further complicates the landscape for oil prices, which are already under pressure from geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Traders should stay alert to the implications for dollar strength and commodity-linked currencies in the wake of these supply worries. In the broader context of FX markets, this could create volatility in pairs sensitive to oil price fluctuations, such as CAD and NOK.

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