Japan shifts to ambush tactics against yen speculators, sources tell Reuters
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bearish | 1.1200 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.1800 |
J.P. Morgan | Bearish | 1.1300 |
All 30 desk targets for EUR/USD
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The shift toward unsignalled intervention raises the cost of holding short yen positions, since traders can no longer rely on jawboning to unwind ahead of MOF action. That heightens two-way risk for USD/JPY around any local data surprise or Fed repricing, with Thursday's US payro
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4 itemsJapanese yen sharply higher on suspected intervention, speculators running for the exit?
USD/JPY: Strong suspicion of intervention
The desk views the recent decline in USD/JPY, which has dropped 3.5% on heavy volumes, as a sign of potential intervention by Japanese authorities capitalizing on dollar weakness following the Fed's dovish signals. Per the full note from ing-think, the timing aligns with indications from Fed officials that suggest a pause on rate hikes is possible, particularly after the lower-than-expected US June core PCE data bolstered this outlook. With Japanese authorities possibly targeting intervention levels of around $70 billion, the sustainability of this currency movement hinges on both Fed policy and a hawkish pivot from the Bank of Japan. The broader backdrop points towards a constrained Japanese FX intervention strategy due to finite reserves, which are forecasted to dip below $1 trillion if the recent interventions continue.