Martin Schlegel: Comments on Swiss monetary policy
At a Glance
The desk believes that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to maintain its current monetary policy stance in light of recent economic indicators. Per the full note source, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized the importance of price stability and the challenges posed by inflation, which is projected to remain above the SNB's target. This aligns with our view that the Swiss franc will remain stable against major currencies, particularly as inflation pressures are expected to persist in the near term.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the SNB's commitment to price stability will keep monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future. Schlegel's remarks indicate a cautious approach to any potential rate hikes, especially given that inflation remains a concern, with recent data showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in March 2026.
Furthermore, the SNB's focus on maintaining a stable currency amidst global economic uncertainties supports our outlook for the Swiss franc. The recent strengthening of the franc against the euro, now trading at 1.05, reflects this stability in the face of external pressures.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/CHF is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which shares a similar outlook on the SNB's policy stance, while bofa presents a more bearish perspective, suggesting a lower target at the lower end of our range.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with our view include jpmorgan and citi, both anticipating a stable Swiss monetary policy. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary stance, projecting a more aggressive easing by the SNB in response to economic pressures.
Key indicators to watch include the EUR/CHF exchange rate, which may reflect shifts in sentiment towards the eurozone's economic stability, and the inflation data releases that could impact SNB policy decisions.
What the calendar says
...
What changed vs prior statement
- 01No material change in policy stance vs prior statement.
- 02Language essentially preserved across key paragraphs regarding monetary strategy.
- 03Vote split: No vote-record change.
From the original
Speech by Mr Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the 118th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 24 April 2026.
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