News & Analysis - HFM

News & Analysis - HFM

Beat the Street: US outlook, Goldman Sachs, China data, ARM - ig.com

Macro Freestyle: What to watch as we enter H2

As we transition into the second half of the year, the desk emphasizes the critical impact of geopolitical tensions, oil price fluctuations, and upcoming tariff deadlines on FX markets. Per the full note from Standard Chartered, these factors are expected to shape market dynamics significantly, particularly in the context of Fed policy and inflation expectations. The consensus target for EUR/USD sits at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12, indicating a cautious outlook amidst these uncertainties.

Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Shifting gears

The desk posits that the shifting landscape of fixed income is indicative of broader market volatility, details of which were outlined by UBS's Leslie Falconeo. Per the full note, the first quarter of 2026 witnessed oscillating sentiment influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including a dip in the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 3.95%. Concurrently, projections for interest rate cuts reached around 60 basis points, reflecting the market's changing expectations as geopolitical events impacted sentiment. This scenario sets the stage for potential positioning shifts among traders, particularly in light of the upcoming economic indicators.