Preview: RBNZ tipped to hike 25bp in July as oil slide clouds tightening outlook
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Rate markets have already pared back conviction on a July move, with hike odds slipping from above 80% a week ago to a range now clustering around the high 60s to 70%. The retreat in crude toward the high USD60s a barrel, down sharply from the roughly USD101 assumed in the RBNZ's
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The desk anticipates a potential interest rate hike at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's upcoming meeting on May 27, although it acknowledges that the RBNZ's tendency towards dovishness may lead to a 'hawkish hold'. Per the full note from ing-think, there is an underappreciated risk of tightening, with expectations suggesting the first of two hikes could occur as early as July. With external factors likely to drive NZD movements, market participants should remain vigilant. Supporting arguments for a hike include evolving inflation data suggesting underlying pressures and a global economic recovery, particularly as the RBNZ has previously suggested readiness to act if necessary. As such, new projections could indicate a tightening cycle starting in Q3, reflecting a shift in the central bank's stance. While the desk leans towards anticipating these hikes, it implicitly dismisses the counter viewpoint that favors a prolonged period of policy accommodation—arguing instead that inflationary pressures are likely to prompt action sooner rather than later.