Russia's Massive Oil Price Windfall
From the original
Russia's massive windfall is in equal parts due to the Iran war and EU fecklessness
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4 itemsThe Commodities Feed: Mixed US-Iran messages leave oil seesawing
The Commodities Feed: Oil rallies with US-Iran deadlock
The desk argues that oil's rally on US-Iran deadlock has limited FX spillover but supports commodity currencies. The source notes geopolitical premium is driving crude, yet no explicit FX pair is cited. Consensus sees CAD and NOK benefiting marginally, but the lack of a direct currency call leaves positioning neutral. No high-impact events loom in the next 30 days for oil-linked FX.
The Commodities Feed: Supply worries remain as US extends Russian oil waiver
The desk underscores a cautious outlook on oil markets as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, remain a core driver of price volatility. As highlighted in the recent commentary, this sensitivity is compounded by the extension of US waivers on Russian oil, creating further supply uncertainties that could influence price trajectories. Given these dynamics, traders should be vigilant of any developments stemming from Iran, which could disrupt the current supply balance. Per the full note [source], the situation is fluid, and price reactions may be swift depending on news developments from the region.