Rates Spark: Growth disappointments would still build a bullish case
The desk posits that despite recent growth disappointments, the overall bullish sentiment for euro rates will persist, primarily driven by upward pressure from…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Aggregated central bank speeches and statements with LLM-generated summaries and stance scoring.
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Load more →The desk posits that despite recent growth disappointments, the overall bullish sentiment for euro rates will persist, primarily driven by upward pressure from…
The desk interprets China's robust trade growth, primarily fueled by technology demand, as a positive signal for stability in the yuan. Per the full note from…
The desk anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will execute its second 25bp rate hike this week, but sees a distinct risk to the euro if President…
Lead — The desk interprets the Fed's anticipated rate hike as a temporary support for the dollar, but emphasizes the view that structural dollar weakness will…
The desk's core view is that the recent Fed rate hike delay will support the dollar temporarily, particularly against lower-yielding currencies. This aligns…
The desk asserts that the current environment remains supportive of carry trades, particularly favoring high-yield currencies such as the Turkish lira and CEE…
The latest FX forecasts from ING suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the euro, aligned with the expectations of stability from the European Central…
With the Brazilian presidential election approaching on October 4, tightening polls indicate a potential shift in favor of Flavio Bolsonaro, which could…
The desk suggests that North Asian currencies, particularly the Korean won, are experiencing a significant rally, though a sustained move below the 1350 level…
Lead — The latest industrial data from Hungary indicates a resilient manufacturing sector that is regaining momentum despite significant headwinds. Per the…
Lead — Romania's economy is facing significant headwinds, primarily relying on investment to sustain growth. Recent data confirms that flat GDP in 2Q26 is…
The desk's view is that while the German construction sector appears to be on a path toward gradual recovery, significant headwinds remain. According to the…
The desk interprets the recent US employment data as indicative of the Federal Reserve's communication failures surrounding monetary policy expectations.…
The desk interprets Turkey's newly published Medium-Term Plan as a signal of a slower-than-expected disinflation trajectory, with inflation projected to remain…
The desk believes that despite recent geopolitical tensions, notably in the Gulf and evolving dynamics in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the dollar is poised for…
The German industrial output data for July underscores the fragility of the country’s economic recovery, as production fell 1.1% month-on-month and 1.6%…
The desk interprets Standard Chartered's analysis as suggesting a shift towards more interventionist policies, potentially influencing inflation and currency…
Lead — Recent developments in the Persian Gulf, characterized by escalating tanker attacks, have provided upward momentum to oil prices, suggesting a…
The recent elections in Saxony-Anhalt have produced a significant victory for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which captured around 44% of the votes, a…
Per the full note [source], RBC questions whether Venezuela's heavy crude can realistically displace Canadian oilsands supply in the US market, framing the…
Following the recent U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the desk posits that the data has significant implications for the Federal Reserve's decision-making…
Per the full note [source], J.P. Morgan's FX podcast returned to its 'Dollar Debate Corner' after a strong U.S. employment report, with Meera Chandan and…
The desk analyzes the implications of the forthcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting for the Eurozone and UK rate curves, highlighting potential shifts in…
The desk posits that the recent rebound in the Japanese yen is driven by fundamental factors rather than intervention, suggesting a potentially more…
The desk believes the recent hawkish stance by Fed Chair Warsh on inflation may not fully reflect the underlying data trends. Per the full note [source], while…
The US jobs report released today has exceeded expectations, with 162,000 jobs added in August, which bolsters the argument for a potential rate hike by the…
The Czech National Bank's tightening bias is gaining traction as inflation remains stubbornly elevated, prompting potential shifts in policy ahead of November.…
Lead — The recent transfer of gold reserves by the Dutch central bank underscores a strategic pivot towards enhanced crisis preparedness, with part of its…
The recent surge in Hungarian retail sales, as reported by ING, points to improving economic conditions driven by low inflation and robust wage growth. With…
The National Bank of Poland is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, despite dovish signals from Governor Adam Glapiński, reflecting…