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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Nomura | Bearish | 165.50 |
Goldman Sachs | Bearish | 165.00 |
Citi | Bearish | 165.00 |
J.P. Morgan | Bearish | 164.00 |
TMGM | Bearish | 163.00 |
Société Générale | Bearish | 160.00 |
Commerzbank | Bearish | 160.00 |
UBS | Bearish | 160.00 |
All 23 desk targets for USD/JPY
USD/JPY · 2026 Bank Forecast
Spot 159.26 · 23-bank consensus 154.22 (-3.2%) by Dec 2026
Institutional 2026 consensus for USD/JPY, aggregated from 23 major sell-side investment banks. Each firm contributes a Dec-2026 year-end target alongside quarterly checkpoints. Below: the distribution shape, outliers, quarterly trajectory, and per-firm breakdown.
Other pairs: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/CHF · USD/CAD · AUD/USD · NZD/USD
Bank consensus from 23 banks puts USD/JPY at 154.22 (range 140.00–165.50) by Dec 2026 — -3.2% from the last close of 159.26.
USD/JPY — 2026 consensus trajectory · quarter-by-quarter
Quarterly path (Mar · Jun · Sep · Dec) · price-vs-forecast overlay
Per-firm distribution · USD/JPY Dec '26 · sorted table
Per-firm dot plot · all-firms table · per-firm bars · 36 firms
StanChart |
BofA |
BARC |
BNP |
RBC |
MUFG |
Rabo |
HSBC |
BNS |
MS |
The cross-bank consensus puts USD/JPY at 156.00 (median) by December 2026, based on the published year-end targets of 23 investment banks. Individual desk targets span 140.00 to 165.50, with a cross-firm mean of 154.22. That spread matters as much as the midpoint: a tight range signals genuine sell-side agreement on the USD/JPY path, while a wide one tells you the desks are split on the macro drivers behind it.
The dollar to yen exchange rate — USD/JPY in market convention — carries a bank consensus of 156.00 (median) for December 2026, drawn from 23 investment banks' published targets, with individual desk forecasts spanning 140.00 to 165.50. A higher USD/JPY reading means a stronger US dollar and a weaker yen; a lower reading means the yen is gaining ground against the dollar.
Nomura currently holds the highest year-end 2026 USD/JPY target among the desks we track, at 165.50 — 6.1% above the cross-bank median. The full board — every covered bank's target, quarterly path and positioning versus consensus — is part of the paid tier.
Continuously. Investment banks revise their published USD/JPY targets as new research lands — typically around central-bank meetings, major data releases and their scheduled forecast rounds. This page recomputes the USD/JPY consensus median, range and per-firm distribution automatically whenever any covered desk publishes a new target, so the aggregate always reflects each bank's latest published view rather than a quarterly snapshot.
Across the major sell-side research desks we track, the most-cited drivers shaping the USD/JPY outlook are absence of boj policy changes, bank of japan maintaining very accommodative monetary policy, bank of japan shifting away from yield curve control, boj intervention threat slowing normalisation, and boj rate-hike expectations at ~80% implied probability. The single most widely shared of these themes appears in the views of 1 different banks, which makes it the closest thing to a true cross-desk consensus narrative for USD/JPY right now. These are the structural and cyclical forces — the relative monetary-policy paths, growth differentials, fiscal dynamics and capital-flow shifts — that strategists keep returning to when they frame their USD/JPY year-end targets. Watching which of these drivers gains or loses backing over time is often a more durable signal than any single point forecast, because it shows where the institutional debate is actually concentrated.
The main risks that investment-bank strategists flag for USD/JPY center on the scenarios that would push the pair away from the central consensus path. Recurring risk triggers cited across the desks include bank of japan moves more slowly than expected in exiting zero interest rate policy; fed refrains from hiking due to unclear energy/inflation trajectory, removing boj's political cover to act; japan restricted from selling us treasuries as part of deal with besent, limiting intervention firepower; and unexpected boj policy changes that would alter the fundamental fair value for the yen. These are the alternative paths — the bullish and bearish tail cases — that banks build into their scenario analysis around their base case. Because several independent desks raise overlapping triggers, the clustering itself is informative: it highlights the catalysts the market is most alert to and the conditions under which the USD/JPY consensus would be revised. Monitoring these shared risk narratives helps you understand not just where banks expect USD/JPY to go, but what would make them change their mind.
Our USD/JPY consensus aggregates the published forecasts and research narratives of the major global investment banks, comparing their year-end targets, quarterly paths and the reasoning behind them side by side. Rather than relying on any one house view, the page clusters the drivers and risk scenarios that recur across desks so you can see where the sell side genuinely agrees and where it splits. Each driver above shows how many separate banks cite it, turning a pile of individual reports into a single legible map of institutional conviction. The full per-firm distribution, individual bank targets and the detailed scenario levels behind each view are available to subscribers, while the aggregate consensus picture is open to everyone.
Four firms shift USDJPY forecasts bullish, citing higher year-end targets
4 firms · Higher year-end USDJPY target set
Past shifts