EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rises towards 1.1600 but RSI remains bearish
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1550, inching towards the key psychological level of 1.1600. Despite this upward movement, the RSI indicates bearish divergence, raising concerns for traders regarding potential corrections. The conflicting signals suggest a nuanced outlook for long positions, as the market grapples with both bullish sentiment for the euro and bearish technical indicators for the pair.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus forecast for EUR/USD stands at 1.1717 for March 2026, with a notable range from 1.1200 to 1.2000 among various firms. The upcoming consensus numbers indicate a variety of positions, with BofA at the lower end of 1.1700 and Nordea at the higher side with 1.1884.
How firms align
Firms like BofA and BNP Paribas align closely with the headline's upward projection, targeting 1.1700 and 1.1600, respectively, for March 2026. Conversely, Citi positions itself more conservatively at 1.1300, indicating a mixed sentiment across the board, especially when examining our internal reports.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts have seen upward revisions, with UBS and Morgan Stanley now projecting EUR/USD at 1.2000 for March 2026, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Additionally, our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path highlights the divergence between current trading levels and the longer-term consensus, indicating potential volatility ahead.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets are bullish, but RSI signals suggest caution at 1.1600.
- 02Traders should monitor for potential pullbacks in long positions.
- 03Catalyst to watch: Eurozone economic data could sway sentiment.
- 04Divergence in EUR targets highlights varying firm outlooks.
Market implications
Next, watch for the market's reaction around the 1.1600 level, particularly with upcoming economic releases from the Eurozone. The consensus target of 1.1717 could provide key resistance, and positioning could shift depending on economic indicators.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic report could invalidate the bullish outlook, causing a reversal in sentiment towards the dollar. Additionally, any hawkish comments from the ECB could exacerbate selling pressure on EUR/USD.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls struggle to breach a previous support near 1.1600
Failure to break 1.1600 resistance suggests EUR/USD consolidation range; watch for breakout direction as technical support holds.
Euro: Seen drifting toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – BBH
EUR/USD technical breakdown toward 1.1400 signals weakening support structure; FX desks should monitor for acceleration below key level.
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