Euro: Downtrend against US Dollar targets lower supports – UOB
The euro continues its downtrend against the US dollar, with current trading around 1.1679, as noted by UOB's latest analysis indicating lower support targets. This reinforces a broader market sentiment that questions eurozone strength amid ongoing economic challenges. The focus is on the potential for further depreciation, which could see levels targeting support around 1.1600s in the near term. A declining euro also raises questions about the timing and efficacy of the ECB’s monetary policy response.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1717 (median across numerous firms), with Commerzbank indicating a more bullish near-term outlook at 1.1900 and Wells Fargo projecting a more cautious 1.1200. UOB's bearish stance aligns with the outlook of firms like Rabobank, which recently revised targets lower.
How firms align
UOB's bearish perspective is mirrored by firms such as ANZ and BNP Paribas, which are targeting 1.1609 and 1.1600 respectively for March 2026. In contrast, Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley maintain a more optimistic view, forecasting levels of 1.1900 and 1.2000. These contrasting positions illustrate a divided sentiment within the market.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have indicated a downward trend, notably from Citi, which recently lowered its March target to 1.1300, reflecting concerns over the euro's resilience. Our published research highlights that EUR/USD currently trades approximately 3% below the December 2026 consensus of 1.20 (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1679 and facing downward pressure.
- 02Look for support levels around 1.1600 in the near term.
- 03Market participants are divided, with targets ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2200.
- 04Continued economic challenges in the eurozone may impact the euro’s strength.
Market implications
Traders should monitor key support levels, specifically around 1.1600, while positioning for potential ECB policy signals in the coming weeks. The current consensus target of 1.1717 should also be a reference point for market movements.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this view could occur if economic indicators reveal unexpected strength in the eurozone or if the ECB signals a more aggressive policy stance than currently anticipated. Statements from ECB officials may serve as a catalyst for shifts in sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro holds steady against the US Dollar as markets await clarity on a possible US-Iran peace deal
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls struggle to breach a previous support near 1.1600
Failure to break 1.1600 resistance suggests EUR/USD consolidation range; watch for breakout direction as technical support holds.
Euro: Seen drifting toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – BBH
EUR/USD technical breakdown toward 1.1400 signals weakening support structure; FX desks should monitor for acceleration below key level.
Germany's final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for May remains at 2.7% YoY: What it means for EUR/USD?
Bank desks on this topic
Kevin Warsh navigates a hawkish Fed shift
Articles Kevin Warsh navigates a hawkish Fed shift 15:12 FX Rates United States Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Improved economic momentum and elevated inflation suggest the Federal Reserve will acknowledge the possibility of future ra
FX Daily: War is over – maybe
Articles FX Daily: War is over – maybe 08:02 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download “We ended the war with Iran today,” said President Trump yesterday evening. Brent crude fell 4% on the news, while short-dated US yields and the dollar fel
ING Monthly: Already playing into extra time
Articles ING Monthly: Already playing into extra time 11:00 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Traditionally, the World Cup may have offered a welcome reprieve from global uncertainty and heavy headlines. Still, there are moments when eve
FX: Cyclical dollar bullishness takes over
Articles FX: Cyclical dollar bullishness takes over 10:33 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download After much discussion about a structural decline in the dollar last year, investor sentiment is now swinging towards a cyclical dollar rally.