When is the German ZEW survey and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The German ZEW survey, a key gauge of economic sentiment in Europe's largest economy, is due later this week. Our analysis shows EUR/USD is currently trading well below consensus targets, with the median March 2026 forecast at 1.18 versus today's 1.15. This divergence suggests potential upside if the data surprises positively, reinforcing the gap between market pricing and analyst expectations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for March 2026 stands at 1.18 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.20) and BofA at the lower (1.17). The current spot at 1.15 sits 2.6% below the median, reflecting a bearish market bias that contrasts with the generally bullish consensus. Fxstreet's focus on the ZEW survey aligns with the near-term catalyst needed to test this divergence.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley and ING are the most bullish, targeting 1.20 and 1.19 respectively for March 2026, while BofA and Barclays at 1.17 are the most cautious. The headline's implicit bullish bias aligns more closely with the upper third of forecasts. Our per-firm pages for jpmorgan, goldman, and mufg also support a gradual euro recovery.
What the data shows
Our recent research (/research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026) highlights that EUR/USD consensus sits at 1.22 for year-end while spot is nearly 4% below. A strong ZEW reading could catalyze a move toward the March consensus as positioning adjusts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01German ZEW is the key short-term catalyst for EUR/USD; positive surprise could narrow the ~2.6% gap to March consensus.
- 02Current spot at 1.15 is below all firm targets—median March 2026 is 1.18.
- 03Morgan Stanley (1.20) and BofA (1.17) define the March range—breakout above 1.18 opens path to 1.20.
- 04Watch for risk-on sentiment; ZEW data also reflects global growth expectations.
Market implications
A ZEW reading above consensus (currently ~30 for Germany) could push EUR/USD toward 1.1650 in the near term, aligning with the lower end of the March range. Failure to hold 1.14 support would invalidate the bullish consensus narrative and target a retest of 1.12.
Risks to this view
A weak ZEW print, especially below 20, would reinforce the current bearish bias and challenge the consensus view that EUR/USD rises to 1.18 by March. Escalation in geopolitical tensions (e.g., energy supply) could also renew downside pressure.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.