EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as bullish potential seems intact
EUR/USD has held above the 1.1700 support level, reinforcing a bullish technical structure that points to further upside. The pair's resilience near this psychological barrier, despite a composite sentiment reading of -0.35 (USD bearish, EUR bullish), suggests momentum remains in favor of the euro. This comes as our internal data shows spot at 1.1500, trading well below the consensus median target of 1.1800 for March 2026, indicating potential catch-up trade. The headline from fxstreet.com underscores that the trend remains intact, a view supported by the majority of our surveyed firms targeting higher levels over the next three quarters.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for March 2026 stands at 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and BofA and Barclays at the lower (1.1700). Current spot at 1.1500 is 2.6% below consensus, suggesting meaningful upside potential. Fxstreet.com's bullish outlook aligns closely with the upper third of our firm targets, particularly Morgan Stanley and ING, both of which see EUR/USD at 1.1900+ by March next year.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley stands out with the most aggressive near-term forecast at 1.2000 for March 2026, while ING (1.1900) and JPMorgan, Goldman, MUFG, and Deutsche Bank (all 1.1800) are also aligned. BofA and Barclays are the most cautious, with March targets of 1.1700, sitting just above current spot and representing a more conservative view. Our internal /reports/ pages show no recent revision from these firms, so the weight of consensus supports the headline's bullish bias.
What the data shows
Our published research, /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026, highlights that EUR/USD consensus sits at 1.22 for December 2026 while spot is 3.87% below that level, reinforcing the view that the currency is undervalued. The headline's technical support at 1.1700 aligns with BofA's and Barclays' near-term targets, but the broader range of targets extends to 1.2000, leaving room for upside beyond that level.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds above 1.1700 support, keeping bullish technicals intact for further gains toward consensus March target of 1.1800.
- 02Current spot at 1.1500 trades at a 2.6% discount to the March median consensus, suggesting catch-up potential.
- 03Morgan Stanley's bullish March 2026 target of 1.2000 represents the upper bound, while BofA/Barclays at 1.1700 align with support.
- 04A break below 1.1700 would invalidate the bullish structure and expose a move toward the 1.1500 area.
Market implications
Key levels to watch include a break above 1.1800 (consensus March median) to target 1.2000 (Morgan Stanley upper bound). The next major calendar event is the ECB policy meeting, where any dovish surprise could test support. Our consensus trajectory implies a steady grind higher, but spot must first reclaim the 1.1700 handle convincingly.
Risks to this view
A sustained break below 1.1700 support would invalidate the bullish structure, potentially targeting 1.1500 (current spot). Dovish ECB guidance or a sudden USD strength catalyst, such as a surprise hawkish Fed pivot, could force a reversal. The wide dispersion in firm targets (1.1700 to 1.2000 for March) underscores uncertainty, and a failure to hold 1.1700 would shift sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.