EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds onto gains near 1.1730
EUR/USD extended gains to trade near 1.1730, building on recent upside momentum. The pair's advance comes amid a broadly weaker dollar, but spot remains well below our consensus median target of 1.1800 for March 2026. This divergence underscores a market that is pricing in a slower path to EUR appreciation than most major banks forecast. The headline's reference to 'holds onto gains' suggests near-term support, but the gap to consensus implies either a catch-up rally or that forecasts need to converge lower.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for March 2026 sits at 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with a range of 1.1700–1.2000. Current spot at 1.1500 is 2.5% below the median, aligning more closely with the lower end of the range—BofA and Barclays at 1.1700 represent the floor. Fxstreet's bullish framing contrasts with the 1.1730 level still beneath most firm targets.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley stands out with a March 2026 target of 1.2000, the most bullish, while BofA and Barclays at 1.1700 are the most cautious. JPMorgan, Goldman, ING, MUFG, and Deutsche Bank cluster around 1.1800–1.1900, supporting the view that further upside is likely. Our internal /reports/<firmId> pages detail these divergences.
What the data shows
Our published research 'EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below' (slug: /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026) highlights the persistent gap between consensus and spot. This dynamic suggests that if spot continues to grind higher, it may converge toward the median, but failure to break above 1.1800 could trigger a reevaluation of bullish forecasts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds near 1.1730, still 2.5% below consensus March 2026 median of 1.1800.
- 02Most firms target 1.1800–1.1900 for March 2026, with Morgan Stanley at 1.2000 and BofA/Barclays at 1.1700.
- 03Spot below consensus suggests room for further gains, but a break above 1.1800 needed to confirm bullish momentum.
- 04Divergence between spot and consensus is a key theme; see our research on EUR/USD consensus divergence.
Market implications
Watch for a test of the 1.1800 level, the March consensus median. A close above that could accelerate gains toward 1.1900–1.2000. Key catalyst: upcoming eurozone inflation data or Fed policy signals. Our consensus median provides a clear near-term target.
Risks to this view
A sharp dollar rally or disappointing eurozone data could reverse gains. A drop below 1.1500 (current spot) would invalidate the bullish view and push spot toward the 1.1400 area. The BofA/Barclays target of 1.1700 acts as interim support.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.