When is the US flash S&P Global PMI for April and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The US flash S&P Global PMI for April is the next catalyst for EUR/USD, currently trading at 1.1500, well below consensus. Markets will look for signs of economic divergence between the US and eurozone to gauge the pair's direction. A stronger US reading could reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, pushing EUR/USD toward the downside, while a miss might fuel a recovery. This release is critical as the pair sits 3.87% below the March 2026 median target of 1.1800, highlighting significant bearish positioning.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for March 2026 stands at 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and BofA at the lower (1.1700). The current spot of 1.1500 is 2.6% below even the most bearish target, suggesting substantial valuation discount. FXStreet's analysis aligns more closely with the upper third — JPMorgan, Goldman, ING, and others share a bullish view, though near-term data dependency remains high.
How firms align
JPMorgan and Goldman target 1.1800 for March 2026, while Morgan Stanley is the most bullish at 1.2000. BofA and Barclays are the most cautious at 1.1700. The headline's neutral tone reflects the market's uncertainty ahead of the PMI data; strong US data could validate the bears (BofA/Barclays), while weak data would support the consensus bullish view from firms like Deutsche Bank and MUFG (both 1.1800). Our internal firm pages detail these forecasts further.
What the data shows
Our research piece 'EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below' highlights a persistent divergence between spot and consensus, implying either a sharp reversion or a structural shift. The April PMI release is a key near-term test: a miss could trigger catch-up to the 1.1800 median, while a beat might deepen the discount.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1500 trades 2.6% below the most bearish March 2026 target of 1.1700 (BofA, Barclays).
- 02Consensus median of 1.1800 implies over 2.6% upside; PMI data is the next catalyst.
- 03Strong US PMI could push EUR/USD toward 1.1400; weak data might rally to 1.1700.
- 04Morgan Stanley (1.2000) and Goldman (1.1800) are the most bullish; BofA and Barclays are the most bearish.
Market implications
Watch the 1.1500 level: a break below opens the way to 1.1400, while a rebound above 1.1600 could target 1.1800. The next FOMC meeting and eurozone PMI releases will also drive sentiment. Our consensus median of 1.1800 for March 2026 serves as a key medium-term anchor.
Risks to this view
Sustained US economic resilience could invalidate the bullish consensus, pushing EUR/USD below 1.1300. Conversely, a sharp deterioration in eurozone data would reinforce bearish views from BofA and Barclays, challenging the median target. A hawkish Fed surprise would also weigh.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.