Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook pushbacks, payrolls, CNY, GBP
In their latest review, J.P. Morgan's Global FX Strategists highlight pivotal market dynamics affecting key currencies, particularly focusing on the upcoming payrolls data for the dollar and ongoing shifts in CNY and GBP. Per the full note source, the emphasis is on the interplay between U.S. economic indicators and currency valuations, positioning traders to recalibrate strategies based on data-driven insights. The report notes that anticipated payroll numbers could significantly sway dollar trajectories, providing a critical lens through which to view upcoming currency movements.
What the desk is arguing
The desk emphasizes that the upcoming U.S. payrolls print is poised to have a considerable impact on the dollar's performance. The uptick in expectations for payroll growth suggests the market is leaning towards a stronger dollar narrative, especially if figures surpass current forecasts.
Recent developments in CNY indicate improved stability, which could also support risk sentiment and impact cross-currency flows. The desk notes that a robust payroll report could lead to upward adjustments in the dollar, making this a vital moment for FX traders.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the USD against major currencies stands at 1.075, portraying a stable outlook amidst fluctuating economic indicators. Key peers like jpmorgan project a target of 1.10 for March 2026, while bofa maintains a conservative target of 1.04 over the same tenure.
This perspective aligns with the broader market view that anticipates modest dollar appreciation. Our outlook closely reflects the upper end of the competing forecasts, suggesting a bullish sentiment in light of expected positive payroll data.
How other firms see it
Among firms projecting similar outcomes, jpmorgan and goldmansachs align with an optimistic view on the dollar, likely to benefit from favorable payroll data. Conversely, firms like bofa remain skeptical, predicting headwinds for the dollar despite positive U.S. data.
The EUR/USD trajectory could mirror the expected volatility in dollar valuations, influenced by the upcoming NFP figures, highlighting an interconnectedness between U.S. labor markets and broader FX trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Upcoming U.S. payrolls will significantly influence the dollar's trajectory.
- 02Recent CNY stabilizations may uplift risk sentiment in FX markets.
- 03Market anticipations for dollar strength are reflected in consensus forecasts.
- 04Contrasting views persist among major banks regarding dollar performance.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the U.S. payroll report, scheduled for next week, as strong data could push the dollar towards levels near the consensus target of 1.075. Should the report exceed expectations, expect notable volatility across key currency pairs, particularly against the euro and yen.
Risks to this view
A weaker-than-expected payroll report could undermine bullish sentiment around the dollar, leading to a potential recalibration of positions. Additionally, any abrupt shifts in geopolitical dynamics or central bank stances could introduce significant volatility, challenging the current projections.
This week, our Global FX Strategists respond to clients’ FAQs following mid-year outlook discussions. We also preview next week’s payrolls print for the dollar, and reflect on recent developments in CNY, GBP & CHF. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5329700-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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