FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand outlook moves the NZD bank consensus across 30 desks
View Reserve Bank of New Zealand outlookFrom the original
ANZ's call for a hike framed around risk management rather than a strong economic signal suggests the bank sees limited room for the RBNZ to sit still even with headline inflation pressures easing. The emphasis on a soft New Zealand dollar as an underappreciated inflation risk po
The desk believes that while a likely 25 basis point hike from the RBNZ is expected, any resulting gains in the New Zealand dollar will be limited in scope. This sentiment is primarily based on the view that such a hike may only serve as an 'insurance move' rather than a firmer commitment to future tightening, as highlighted by ING's analysis, which points out that the RBNZ's previous inflation forecasts have become increasingly unrealistic in light of falling oil prices (current levels around $65, versus earlier projections of $95 to $105) [source]. The current market consensus suggests a muted outlook for the NZD, with expectations being reflected in the consensus target—which ranges from 0.5700 to 0.6000 through 2026—showing that traders are bracing for limited upside potential in the currency as economic conditions evolve.