Brent seen easing from above $96 to $80 in Q4 with WTI at $70 as Gulf exports recover - Economy Middle East
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Brent seen easing from above $96 to $80 in Q4 with WTI at $70 as Gulf exports recover Economy Middle East
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4 itemsGoldman Cuts Brent Forecast to $80 From $90, Sees Gulf Oil Trade Normalizing by End-July - bloomingbit
The Commodities Feed: Persian Gulf escalation pushes Brent above $90
Per the full note [source], Brent crude has breached $90/bbl as Persian Gulf escalation disrupts vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with only 2 outbound oil tankers transiting today. The desk argues that the risk of Bab el-Mandeb closure by Houthis, combined with the imminent end of US SPR releases, leaves the oil market vulnerable to further price spikes. While no FX pair is explicitly cited, the rally supports energy-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) and pressures import-heavy economies (JPY, INR). Consensus among bank strategists sees Brent averaging $85-95 in Q2, with upside risks skewed by geopolitical events.
The Commodities Feed: Oil maintains gains amid Persian Gulf escalation
Per the full note [source], ING argues that oil's rally above $95/bbl is fragile despite Persian Gulf escalation, as Strait of Hormuz flows remain uninterrupted and Iraq's exports hit a wartime high. The desk highlights that Saudi's unchanged OSP for Arab Light suggests the market is not as tight as thought, but refined product inventories in Europe and the US point to persistent middle-distillate tightness into winter. With no internal coverage on oil-linked currencies and no high-impact calendar events, the focus is on supply-side risks and distillate cracks. The consensus view likely sees Brent rangebound, with upside risk if Hormuz is disrupted.
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