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Watch: How energy, China and geopolitics are reshaping the eurozone’s goods surplus

The desk interprets the current pressures on the eurozone's trade balance as indicative of a broader shift in economic dynamics, particularly influenced by energy prices, Chinese demand, and geopolitical tensions. Per the full note from ING's Bert Colijn, these factors are reshaping the eurozone's goods surplus, which is critical for the euro's valuation. The desk highlights that the trade balance is under cyclical and structural stress, with the eurozone's goods surplus narrowing significantly from €24.5 billion in 2022 to an expected €15 billion in 2023. With no high-impact events on the calendar in the next 30 days, traders should focus on these underlying economic shifts as they assess euro positioning.