Early-year slowdown, but Poland still poised for robust 3.4% growth in 2026
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CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: Poland’s economic growth slowed to 3.5% YoY in the first quarter, from 4.1% YoY in the final months of 2025. Private consumption eased amid weaker wage growth, while investment was hit by harsh weather disrupting construction. We expect investment to p
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4 itemsEarly-year slowdown, but Poland still poised for robust 3.4% growth in 2026
Cooling Polish inflation buys time for policymakers
Poland’s growth slows but remains resilient against weak eurozone backdrop
The desk interprets Poland's economic resilience amidst a challenging eurozone backdrop as a critical factor for the zloty. Per the full note from ing-think, the advanced public investment cycle is providing a buffer against external shocks, though rising fuel prices pose a risk to consumption and income growth. Our internal analysis suggests that while industrial contributions to GDP are waning, the shift towards services may offer a stabilizing effect. With no high-impact events on the calendar in the next month, the focus remains on underlying economic fundamentals.
Talent and Technology: What's Driving Poland's Growth
Poland's growth story is increasingly driven by returning talent and technology investment, per Goldman Sachs strategists Artur Tomala and Brent Watson. The repatriation of skilled emigrants, attracted by quality job opportunities, underscores a structural improvement in the labor market, supporting sustained GDP expansion. This narrative bolsters the case for PLN outperformance versus CEE peers, though near-term positioning may reflect caution amid external headwinds. The consensus view remains broadly constructive on PLN, but divergence persists on speed of gains, with upcoming domestic data releases key for confirmation.