Erik Thedéen: Vulnerabilities and resilience in a new world order
At a Glance
The desk interprets Erik Thedéen's recent address as a pivotal moment highlighting the need for resilience in the face of a shifting global economic landscape. Per the full note source, Thedéen emphasizes the vulnerabilities exposed by recent geopolitical tensions and the necessity for strategic investments in competitiveness and security. This aligns with our view that the SEK will face upward pressure as Sweden positions itself as a stable investment destination amidst global uncertainties. The consensus target for the SEK against the EUR is currently set at 1.075, with a range reflecting varying outlooks among major banks.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a critical juncture for the Swedish economy, where Thedéen's remarks underscore the importance of adapting to a new world order characterized by volatility and uncertainty. He argues that proactive measures are essential to safeguard economic stability, which could bolster the SEK's appeal as a safe haven currency.
Supporting this view, Thedéen pointed out that Sweden's robust economic fundamentals, including a strong fiscal position and low unemployment rates, position the country favorably compared to its peers. This is particularly relevant as the Riksbank continues to navigate inflationary pressures, which are projected to stabilize around 2% in the medium term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the SEK against the EUR is set at 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable targets from other firms include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which shares a similar outlook on the SEK's resilience, while bofa presents a more cautious stance at the lower end of the spectrum, indicating potential bearish sentiment that the desk does not endorse.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with our perspective, emphasizing the SEK's potential strength given Sweden's economic fundamentals and geopolitical positioning. Conversely, bofa and deutsche express skepticism, citing concerns over external shocks and domestic inflation that could undermine the SEK's performance.
Key indicators to watch include the EUR/SEK exchange rate, which is likely to reflect shifts in the Riksbank's monetary policy, as well as broader European economic data that could influence investor sentiment towards the region.
What the calendar says
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What changed vs prior statement
- 01• First indexed statement for this feed — no prior to diff against.
From the original
Keynote address by Mr Erik Thedéen, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Hanaholmen conference "The old world order is cancelled: investments for competitiveness and security", Stockholm, 20 April 2026.
Related speeches
4 itemsErik Thedéen: Monetary policy challenges in war related supply shocks
The desk posits that the ongoing war-related supply shocks are complicating monetary policy decisions, particularly for the Sveriges Riksbank. Per the full note [source], Governor Erik Thedéen highlighted the difficulties central banks face in navigating inflationary pressures exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. This aligns with our view that the Riksbank may need to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, especially as inflation remains stubbornly high. With consensus targets for EUR/SEK reflecting a range of 1.04 to 1.10, the market is keenly watching for any shifts in policy direction that could impact currency valuations.