GBP/USD Forecast Below 1.30 by Standard Chartered - Pound Sterling LIVE

What the desk is arguing

The desk views Standard Chartered's forecast of GBP/USD falling below 1.30 as a reflection of looming economic pressures in the UK. As outlined in their commentary, this bearish outlook aligns with the ongoing challenges that the Bank of England faces, including inflation that exceeds targets and sluggish growth forecasts.

Standard Chartered's specific targets of 1.3200 for March 2026 and 1.3000 for December 2026 suggest that they anticipate sustained bearish trends based on their economic analysis. In comparison, the median consensus target among firms is a more optimistic 1.3450, signaling a divergence in sentiment regarding the pound's resilience.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our internal forecast for GBP/USD reflects a consensus target of 1.3450, with a range from 1.3200 to 1.3800. Notable firm targets include: - bnpparibas: 1.3400 for March 2026, 1.3500 for December 2026 - jpmorgan: 1.3700 for March 2026, 1.3600 for December 2026 - goldman: 1.3300 for March 2026, 1.3600 for December 2026

In contrast, stanchart's bearish forecast of 1.3200 for March and a critical 1.3000 for December places them below the lower end of the current consensus range, underscoring a more cautious or pessimistic outlook for the pound compared to the rest of the market.

How other firms see it

Consensus on GBP/USD remains mixed, with firms such as morganstanley and jpmorgan forecasting upwards of 1.3800 for March 2026, indicating a belief in potential recoveries. Meanwhile, citi and stanchart diverge sharply with targets indicating weaker performances at 1.3200 and 1.2400, respectively.

Watching the trajectory of GBP/EUR could provide insights into broader market sentiment surrounding the pound against a stable European backdrop and might reflect any spillover effects from the anticipated US inflation reports.