Global Commodities: Running the Numbers on Gas
At a Glance
The desk believes that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, will continue to exert upward pressure on gas prices, despite temporary openings in shipping routes. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the current disruptions have led to a significant reduction in LNG deliveries, with a loss of approximately 300 million cubic meters per day from Qatar and UAE, which has been partially offset by US supply. Consensus among firms shows a target of 1.075 for gas prices, with J.P. Morgan's target at 1.10, indicating a bullish outlook amid these supply constraints.
Key Takeaways
- 01Iran allowing vessels through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp market reaction, but infrastructure shut-ins remain significant.
- 02Recent Gulf shipments have already reached major regions, providing some buffer against supply disruptions.
- 03J.P. Morgan addresses key market questions on oil and aluminum supply-demand balances amid ongoing uncertainty.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
J.P. Morgan notes that despite Iran's signal on the Strait of Hormuz, significant infrastructure shut-ins across the Middle East persist, and last shipments from the Gulf have already arrived in Europe, Asia, and the US. The market's sharp reaction reflects relief but also caution as uncertainty remains high. The desk answers pressing questions on supply and demand dynamics for oil and aluminum, based on observations recorded on April 24, 2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
Given the lack of internal coverage on the relevant currencies, we have no consensus or firm spread to cite. This analysis stands alone, focusing on commodity-specific factors rather than FX implications.
How other firms see it
No other firms' stances are available in the provided source; the analysis is exclusively based on J.P. Morgan's commentary.
Market Implications
The easing of shipping restrictions may temporarily weigh on energy and commodity prices if supply continues to flow, but the persistence of infrastructure outages could provide support. Aluminum and oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
From the original
Markets reacted sharply to Iran allowing commercial vessels to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this signal, last shipments from the Gulf have arrived across Europe, Asia and the US, while significant infrastructure shut-ins persist across the Middle East. With much uncer
Related speeches
4 itemsGlobal Commodities: Prices Get Relief
The desk sees a significant shift in the aluminum market dynamics as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt supply chains. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet translated into a substantial increase in aluminum supply, with a projected 2 million ton deficit looming due to ongoing infrastructure damage. This situation is compounded by the expectation that demand destruction risks are fading, which may support prices in the near term. Our consensus target for aluminum is 1.075, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook amidst these supply constraints.
Global Commodities: Oil and Gas Rocked by Conflict
Lead — The desk is positioning for heightened volatility in energy markets following recent military actions involving Israel and the US against Iran, which have severely disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, commercial traffic has plummeted, with production shut-ins anticipated in the Gulf, raising concerns about supply shortages. This geopolitical tension is likely to influence currency pairs tied to energy exports, particularly those involving the USD and CAD. Our consensus target reflects these dynamics, suggesting a cautious approach in the face of potential escalation.
UBS Morning audio comment: Trickle or treat?
Lead — The desk interprets the recent commentary from UBS, presented by Chief Economist Paul Donovan, as a signal that the gradual flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz reduces fears of a physical supply shortage and alleviates some geopolitical stress around Iran. The release of oil is expected to influence global crude prices in the short term and could have broader implications for currencies tied to commodity markets. Per the full note, this new context may strengthen sentiment in risk-sensitive currencies, adding a fresh layer of complexity to ongoing volatility in the FX landscape.
The Commodities Feed: Oil steadier as market digests Trump’s Hormuz plan
The desk views the stabilization in the oil market as a critical juncture following President Trump's proposed measures for securing maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Per the full note [source], this development comes after a week of heightened volatility, suggesting that traders are now weighing the implications of U.S. policy on global oil supply dynamics. The desk highlights that recent price fluctuations have been significant, with Brent crude experiencing a swing of over 5% in a single day last week. With no major economic events on the calendar, the focus remains on geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil prices.
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