Here is Trump's schedule in China today, Friday, May 15, 2026
At a Glance
The desk interprets President Trump's schedule in China today as a significant diplomatic engagement that could influence market sentiment towards the USD/CNY pair. Per the full note source, the series of meetings, including a bilateral tea meeting with President Xi Jinping, signals a potential thaw in US-China relations, which could have implications for trade and currency dynamics. Current positioning suggests traders are cautiously optimistic, with the consensus target for USD/CNY at 1.075, reflecting a moderate bullish outlook. However, the lack of immediate economic data releases means that market reactions will largely hinge on the outcomes of these high-profile meetings.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for US-China relations, with President Trump's engagements potentially setting the tone for future economic interactions. The closed-press 'executive time' followed by a series of public engagements suggests a strategic approach to diplomacy that could resonate in FX markets.
The meetings scheduled throughout the day, particularly the bilateral tea meeting at 11:40 am local time, could yield insights into trade negotiations and tariffs, which are critical for the USD/CNY exchange rate. This context is crucial as traders assess the implications of these discussions on market sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/CNY stands at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firms contributing to this outlook include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which sits at the upper end of our consensus range, while bofa presents a more cautious stance at the lower bound. The desk's positioning reflects a more optimistic sentiment compared to the broader market consensus.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their bullish outlook on USD/CNY, anticipating a strengthening of the dollar against the yuan as diplomatic relations improve. Conversely, bofa and deutsche bank express a more bearish perspective, citing ongoing trade tensions as a limiting factor for the yuan's appreciation.
Traders should also monitor the EUR/USD trajectory, as it often mirrors broader dollar strength, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions on the USD's valuation. Additionally, the upcoming PBOC announcements could further influence market dynamics.
What the calendar says
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From the original
This is what I have for Trump today in China, Friday. 8:00 am Closed-press "executive time" (0000 GMT/ 2000 US Eastern time) 11:30 am Photo session with President Xi Jinping (0330/2330) 11:40 am Bilateral tea meeting (0340/2340) 12:15 pm Continued meeting and working lunch with P
Related speeches
4 itemsPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8415 (vs. estimate at 6.7976)
The PBOC's recent setting of the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8415, significantly above market expectations of 6.7976, signals a cautious approach to currency management amid ongoing economic pressures. Per the full note from InvestingLive, the central bank's decision to inject 500 million yuan through 7-day reverse repos, while maintaining the interest rate at 1.4%, suggests a commitment to liquidity support without aggressive easing. This move may reflect concerns over economic stability as external pressures mount, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics. The desk views this as a potential precursor to further policy adjustments if the yuan continues to face downward pressure against the dollar.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8467 (vs. estimate at 6.7988)
The desk views the PBOC's recent adjustment of the USD/CNY reference rate as a significant signal of its ongoing monetary policy stance amid a complex geopolitical backdrop. Per the full note [source], the reference rate was set at 6.8467, notably above market expectations of 6.7988, indicating a potential shift in the central bank's approach to managing currency fluctuations. This comes alongside a liquidity injection of 500 million yuan via reverse repos, maintaining the interest rate at 1.4%, which suggests the PBOC is balancing economic support with currency stability. The upcoming state visit by U.S. President Donald Trump may further complicate these dynamics, as trade relations remain a critical factor in currency valuation.
Newsquawk Week in Focus: US Inflation and Retail Sales, Chinese inflation, Trump-Xi meet
Lead — The desk anticipates a volatile week ahead for FX markets, driven by key inflation data releases from the US and China, as well as significant geopolitical discussions between the US and China. Per the full note [source], the upcoming US CPI and retail sales figures are critical, especially following a hot March report that saw inflation rise to 3.3% Y/Y. The desk is particularly focused on how these data points will influence Fed policy amidst persistent inflationary pressures and a stable labor market.
Economic and event calendar in Asia, Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Japan GDP, RBA minutes.
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