ROBIN BROOKSem fx
How Asia Navigated the Oil Shock
From the original
Everyone's imports fell, except for India, which bought lots of Russian oil
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Global Commodities: Right shock, wrong price
The desk posits that a recent increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has led to downward pressure on prices, highlighting a reliance on demand destruction to balance the market rather than inventory adjustments. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, oil flow levels have recovered to above 50% of pre-war volumes, suggesting a robust supply response. This new dynamic challenges previous price forecasts, which had assumed a tighter balance driven by inventory depletion. Moreover, with low inventory levels, sustained reductions in demand could result in price declines as market sentiment continues to shift.