Minutes of the London FXJSC Main Committee Meeting – 26 March 2026
The desk views the upcoming direction of the EUR/USD pairing with a cautious bias toward stability, as articulated in recent minutes from the London FXJSC meeting chaired by the Bank of England. Per the full note source, the ongoing interest rate differentials and easing political risks surrounding the UK economy, particularly sterling, provide a backdrop of resilience that supports the currency's stability. Current consensus among firms suggests a medium-term target for the EUR/USD at 1.1700, reflecting some divergence in expectations as we analyze forecasts leading into December. In the absence of high-impact events on the calendar, traders should be mindful of contextual shifts stemming from geopolitical developments and central bank stances.
What the desk is arguing
The desk believes that the EUR/USD will exhibit relative stability in the face of ongoing geopolitical challenges. The resilience noted in the FXJSC minutes suggests that currency movements will be more influenced by interest rate differentials rather than drastic market swings. Recent discussions emphasized that interest dynamics are critical for understanding the EUR's positioning against the USD, particularly with the US dollar showing potential strength due to macroeconomic conditions.
Supporting this view is the noted performance of sterling, which remains buoyed by interest rate differentials and political stability as articulated by market participants in the meeting. This backdrop lends some stability to Euro pricing around current levels, exemplified by the consensus target of 1.1700 currently tracked by several major firms.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700, with a range from 1.1200 to 1.2000. Notable December forecasts include: - citi: 1.1200 - jpmorgan: 1.1300 - goldman: 1.2000
This view aligns closely with the current market consensus. There is a dispersion in firm forecasts, with some firms, such as citi, targeting lower levels, while goldman situates its target significantly higher, reflecting a more optimistic view on Euro appreciation.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with the desk's perspective include jpmorgan and goldman, who forecast EUR levels around 1.1800 to 1.2000 for December. Conversely, firms like citi are positioned at the lower end, predicting targets around 1.1200.
As we assess the broader context, the trajectory of EUR/USD will also depend heavily on developments within the USD and its relative strength. The interplay of the European Central Bank's decisions with geopolitical events will be critical.
What the calendar says
With no high-impact calendar events in the next 30 days, FX traders are advised to remain attentive to regional economic indicators and potential geopolitical shifts that could influence market dynamics. This tranquil period may set the stage for volatility should unexpected news arise.
How firms align with this view
Key takeaways
- 01The desk anticipates relative stability in the EUR/USD pairing amid geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures.
- 02Consensus forecasts range around 1.1700, illustrating a mix of expectations among major firms.
- 03Interest rate differentials will play a pivotal role in EUR/USD movements going forward.
- 04Monitoring upcoming central bank communications remains crucial for positioning.
Market implications
Watch the EUR/USD around the 1.1700 level for signals of possible breakouts or shifts in trader sentiment as we navigate a quieter calendar period. Any unexpected geopolitical events could serve as catalysts for volatility in this pair.
Risks to this view
Risks to this outlook include a sharp change in central bank sentiment, particularly from the ECB or the Fed, which could lead to increased volatility in the EUR/USD. A significant deterioration in EU economic data or heightened geopolitical tensions could also unravel the current stability.
Home Minutes of the London FXJSC Main Committee Meeting – 26 March 2026 Minutes of the London FXJSC Main Committee Meeting – 26 March 2026 The Bank of England chairs the London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee (FXJSC), which is a forum for discussion of the wholesale foreign exchange market. The FXJSC is made up of market participants, infrastructure providers and the UK financial regulators. Published on 02 July 2026 Browse content Contents Date of meeting: 26 March 2026 Time: 2pm – 4pm | Location: Bank of England, 20 Moorgate, London, EC2R 6DA Minutes Item 1: Welcome and Apologies Andrea Rosen (Chair, Bank of England) welcomed James Ellery (Goldman Sachs) and Oliver McCausland (FCA) to the Committee.Ms Rosen also welcomed Alina Ishmuratova (JPMorgan), Paul Robson (NatWest Markets) and Vasileios Gkionakis (Aviva Investors) as guest presenters; and Mark Wyatt (Barclays) as an observer.Ms Rosen announced that Alan Barnes (FCA), Nina Moylett (M&G) and Richard Bibbey (HSBC) would be stepping down from the Committee and thanked them all for their longstanding contributions.
Ms Rosen also noted that Jatin Vara had departed from the Committee following his move from BlackRock and thanked him for his contributions.Ms Rosen noted apologies from Galina Dimitrova (The Investment Association), with Hugo Gordon attending as her alternate. Item 2: November Meeting Minutes The minutes of the 27 November 2025 were approved. Item 3: Market Update Paul Robson (NatWest Markets) and Vasileios Gkionakis (Aviva Investors) presented an update on recent FX market developments.Mr Robson provided an overview of UK‑related drivers for sterling performance, noting that sterling had remained relatively resilient, supported by interest rate differentials and easing political risk premia, and discussed the potential implications of the Middle East conflict for sterling.Mr Gkionakis discussed the outlook for the US dollar, noting that developments in the Middle East had supported short‑term safe‑haven demand for the US dollar, while longer‑term structural factors would impact US dollar performance going forward.
Mr Gkionakis emphasised that the duration of the supply shock from the Middle East conflict would be an important driver of near‑term currency dynamics.The Committee discussed current market conditions, noting the cautious “wait‑and‑see” behaviour in FX which was reflected in the moderate observed FX volatility since the beginning of the Middle East conflict. The Committee highlighted that FX market functioning had remained orderly, although noted that the start of the conflict had been challenging as the market digested the news. Item 4: FXJSC Turnover Survey Results Muna Lisimba (Bank of England) presented the key findings of the October 2025 FXJSC Turnover Survey .
Mr Lisimba noted that daily average FX turnover had declined by 5% survey-on-survey to $3,850 billion following the record high April 2025 survey, but was 20% higher year-on-year. Mr Lisimba highlighted that FX swap activity was the main driver of turnover in October, despite lower volumes across most other FX instruments. Mr Lisimba also noted that the composition of turnover by currency pair remained broadly unchanged, with USD/EUR continuing to be the most traded currency pair.
Item 5: Digital Assets in FX Alina Ishmuratova (JPMorgan) presented an overview of emerging digital asset use cases in FX, including intraday FX funding and settlement solutions supported by distributed ledger technology. Ms Ishmuratova outlined the potential benefits of such solutions, including balance sheet optimisation, enhanced transparency and reduced settlement risk. Ms Ishmuratova noted that adoption of digital asset solutions had been slow so far, as the FX market continued to assess the use cases for these new technologies.
The Committee discussed current levels of adoption and generally agreed that these technologies were not yet being actively used across mainstream FX markets and discussed potential drivers for increased adoption. Item 6: GFXC Update Natalie Lovell (Bank of England) provided an update on the work of the Global Foreign Exchange Committee (GFXC). Ms Lovell noted that preparations were underway for the upcoming FX Global Code review and outlined ongoing work on FX settlement data, including that of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to refine and publish the April 2025 FX settlement survey data.
Lisa Dukes (Association of Corporate Treasurers) provided an update on recent outreach activities, including a CFA webinar series and ongoing work on the concept of proportionality in Statements of Commitment. Ms Dukes also presented on the GFXC corporates’ letter, outlining its purpose in encouraging broader corporate engagement with the FX Global Code and discussed expected next steps. Ms Dukes noted that the letter had been shared with Local FX Committees for wider distribution and invited Committee members to support outreach efforts to corporates.
Item 7: FXJSC Sub-committee Updates James Kaye (Chair of the Operations Sub-Committee) provided an update on recent work related to market resilience. Mr Kaye highlighted the publication of the workflow on the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group (CMORG) website, which sets out escalation arrangements for a market-wide sterling disruption event. Sharon Blackman (Chair of the Legal Sub-Committee) provided an update on recent discussions, including developments in EU benchmark and stablecoin regulation.
Ms Blackman noted that the changes to the scope of EU benchmark regulation included adjustments to the criteria for determining whether certain FX benchmarks fell within the scope of the new regulation. Item 8: Regular Updates James Kemp (Financial Markets Standards Board) provided a brief update on recent FX market structure developments. Mr Kemp noted that FX trade allocations remained a key area of focus in the FX market.
Mr Kemp suggested that potential provisions for good market practice on trade allocations should be considered as part of any future Code review. Additional material can be found in a recent Global FX Division paper footnote [1] . Mr Kemp provided an update on pre-hedging, noting that the Financial Markets Standards Board (FMSB) was considering whether further guidance would be beneficial, and extent to which recent IOSCO guidance may need to be reflected in the Code.
Mr Kemp also highlighted recent developments related to UK benchmark regulation (BMR), including the recent UK consultation paper footnote [2] , and flagged that this raises the need to explore potential exemptions for certain overseas benchmarks used for deliverable forwards (as recently enacted in the EU). Mr Kemp also briefly noted ongoing GFXD discussions around FX settlement finality considerations across a number of non-CLS jurisdictions. Attendees Andrea Rosen – Bank of England (Chair) James Ellery – Goldman Sachs James Kaye – HSBC (Chair, FXJSC Operations Sub-committee) James Kemp – Financial Markets Standards Board Jeremy Smart – XTX Markets Kate Hill – Aviva Investors Lisa Dukes – Corporate Representative, Association of Corporate Treasurers Mani Natarajan – Morgan Stanley Marc Bayle de Jesse – CLS Mimi Rushton – Barclays Neehal Shah – BNP Paribas Nina Moylett – M&G Oliver McCausland – FCA Paul Houston – CME Group Philippe Lintern – Bank of England Richard Bibbey – HSBC Sally Francis-Cole – London Stock Exchange Group Sarah Boyce – Association of Corporate Treasurers Sharon Blackman – Citigroup (Chair, FXJSC Legal Sub-committee) Simon Manwaring – NatWest Markets Sophie Rutherford – State Street Stephen Jefferies – JP Morgan Alternates Hugo Gordon – The Investment Association Guest attendees Alina Ishmuratova – JPMorgan Paul Robson – NatWest Markets Vasileios Gkionakis – Aviva Investors Observers Mark Wyatt – Barclays FXJSC Secretariat Muna Lisimba – Bank of England Natalie Lovell – Bank of England Sakshi Gupta – Bank of England Shiv Khetia – Bank of England Apologies Galina Dimitrova – The Investment Association https://www.gfma.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/gfxd-optimising-the-fx-trade-allocation-process- jan26.pdf Future regulatory regime for benchmarks and benchmark administrators: Consultation - GOV.UK Future regulatory regime for benchmarks and benchmark administrators: Consultation - GOV.UK Close https://www.gfma.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/gfxd-optimising-the-fx-trade-allocation-process- jan26.pdf Close Convert this page to PDF Other news News // Minutes 02 July 2026 Minutes of the London FXJSC Legal Sub Committee...
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