Is US inflation picking up?
From the original
There's NO sign underlying inflation is picking up despite yesterday's "hot" CPI
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4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Price perception problems'
August US CPI showed no headline surprise, but durable goods inflation turned positive after 29 months of deflation, while food-at-home prices jumped sharply (monthly change highest in nearly three years). Per the full note [ubs-on-air], the desk argues these moves are relative price shifts from idiosyncratic supply factors (coffee harvest, import costs) rather than broad demand-driven inflation. The consumer sentiment poll is dismissed as politically biased, but the desk flags that partisan breakdown of inflation expectations could reveal whether rising food/fuel costs override political narratives. No specific currency pair is cited, but the implication for macro trades is muted unless the narrative shifts to stagflation.
Fed still sidelined even as US inflation picks up in April - CIBC
The desk interprets the recent uptick in US inflation data as a signal that the Federal Reserve remains firmly on the sidelines, despite rising price pressures. Per the full note from CIBC, the April CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.7% consensus, driven by higher energy and shelter costs. This inflationary pressure is not expected to prompt an immediate Fed response, as market expectations currently align with no rate changes until year-end. The desk emphasizes that the Fed is likely to remain inactive until inflation trends closer to its 2% target or unemployment rises significantly, which aligns with CIBC's forecast.