LatAm FX: Carry resilience versus Fed repricing – BNY - TMGM

United States Dollar: Policy divergence and risk sentiment – BNY - TMGM

US Dollar: Upside risks persist on resilient data – BBH - TMGM

Global FX: Cease-fire, the dollar, DM/EM FX impact, IMF round-up

The desk is cautiously optimistic about the dollar's trajectory in light of recent geopolitical developments and shifting inflation dynamics. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the announcement of a ceasefire has led to a renewed focus on carry trades, particularly favoring high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar and Brazilian real. This comes as inflation forecasts have been upgraded across 70% of countries monitored, suggesting a more persistent inflation regime that complicates central bank policies. As the dollar remains a high-yielding currency, the desk suggests a more selective approach to bearish dollar positions, emphasizing carry efficiency in trade implementations.

Goldman Sachs Slashes USD/BRL Forecast on Surging Trade and Carry Strength - MEXC