Market outlook for the week of 25th-29th May

Market outlook for the week of 4th - 8th May

Lead — The desk anticipates a cautious week for the FX market, with significant attention on the RBA's monetary policy decision and U.S. labor data releases. Per the full note [source], geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are likely to influence central bank actions, particularly in Australia. The consensus suggests a 25 bps hike from the RBA, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. employment data could reveal further insights into the labor market's trajectory, impacting USD positioning.

Market outlook for the week of 18th - 22nd May

Market outlook for the week of 11th - 15th May

Lead — The desk anticipates a cautious week ahead for FX markets, with key U.S. inflation data and central bank commentary likely to shape sentiment. Per the full note [source], the focus will be on U.S. core CPI, projected to rise to 0.3% m/m, amid concerns over rising energy and food prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This backdrop suggests potential volatility in the USD, particularly against currencies like the AUD and GBP, as traders assess the implications for monetary policy. With the Fed Chair nomination vote also on the horizon, market dynamics could shift significantly based on the outcomes of these events.

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, ISM Services PMI, RBA, Canadian jobs and OPEC+

Lead — The desk anticipates a volatile week for FX markets, driven by key economic indicators and central bank decisions, particularly in the US and Australia. Per the full note [source], the focus will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Services PMI, alongside the RBA's expected rate hike. The consensus is leaning towards a 25bps increase from the RBA, which would mark a third consecutive hike, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. With the US jobs report due Friday, traders should brace for potential market shifts based on employment data and central bank signals.