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Global Commodities: Going Against the Grain on Oil

The desk maintains a bearish outlook on oil prices, diverging from the prevailing optimism observed at the recent International Energy Week in London. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the desk emphasizes the resilience of Russian oil supply, the limited risks associated with Iran, and the ongoing accumulation of global inventories as key factors supporting this view. With the consensus target for oil prices sitting at 1.075, the desk's stance suggests a potential downward adjustment in expectations. Traders should be mindful of how these dynamics could influence currency pairs linked to oil, particularly CAD and NOK.