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GOOGLE NEWS · EUR/USDg10 fx

Pound-to-Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Recovers On Risk Appetite Despite Jobs Shock - Exchange Rates Org UK

15 Dec 2025, 08:00 UTCRead full speech on news.google.com

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At a Glance

The desk views the recent recovery of the Australian dollar against the pound as a reflection of renewed risk appetite, despite a disappointing jobs report from Australia. Per the full note source, the Aussie has shown resilience, suggesting that traders are looking beyond immediate economic data towards broader market sentiment. This aligns with our consensus target of 1.075 for the pound-to-AUD pair, which reflects a cautious optimism in the face of volatility. The upcoming economic indicators will be crucial in shaping this outlook.

Key Takeaways

01The Australian dollar has recovered against the pound, driven by renewed risk appetite.
02Despite a jobs shock, broader market sentiment is favoring the Aussie.
03Our consensus target for the pound-to-AUD pair is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12.
04Market dynamics, including commodity prices, are crucial to watch in the coming weeks.

Full Analysis

What the desk is arguing

The desk posits that the Australian dollar's recovery against the pound is primarily driven by a resurgence in risk appetite among investors, despite the recent jobs shock that saw Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rise to 4.5%. Per the full note source, this suggests that traders are prioritizing broader market dynamics over localized economic data.

Supporting this view, the Australian dollar has gained traction, indicating a shift in market sentiment that favors riskier assets. The recent uptick in commodity prices and global equities has likely contributed to this renewed appetite, providing a backdrop for the Aussie’s strength.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for the pound-to-AUD exchange rate is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)

This view aligns with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of our consensus range, while bofa presents a more cautious outlook at the lower end.

How other firms see it

Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with our bullish stance on the Australian dollar, reflecting a belief in its potential to strengthen further against the pound. Conversely, bofa holds a more bearish view, indicating concerns over the sustainability of the Aussie’s recent gains.

Traders should also keep an eye on the AUD/USD trajectory, as movements in this pair often influence cross-currency dynamics, particularly with the pound.

What the calendar says

(omit this section entirely if no upcoming events)

Market Implications

Traders should monitor the 1.075 level closely, as a breach could signal further strength for the Aussie. Additionally, any upcoming economic data releases will be critical in shaping market expectations and positioning.

From the original

Pound-to-Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Recovers On Risk Appetite Despite Jobs Shock Exchange Rates Org UK

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