Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey shows rising inflation expectations
At a Glance
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's latest survey indicates a notable rise in inflation expectations, with 2-year expectations climbing to 2.5% from 2.4% and 1-year expectations surging to 3.4% from 2.6%. Per the full note source, this shift suggests that market participants are increasingly anticipating sustained inflationary pressures, which could influence the RBNZ's monetary policy trajectory. The desk views this as a potential catalyst for the NZD, particularly if the central bank reacts to these expectations with a more hawkish stance. With the current consensus target for NZD/USD at 1.075, this data could prompt a reassessment of positioning ahead of upcoming economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- 01RBNZ survey shows 1-year inflation expectations rising to 3.4%, up from 2.6%.
- 022-year inflation expectations also increased to 2.5%, indicating persistent inflation concerns.
- 03Market participants may adjust their positions in anticipation of a more hawkish RBNZ response.
- 04Current consensus target for NZD/USD is 1.075, with a potential for upward movement.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that rising inflation expectations in New Zealand will likely lead to a more aggressive monetary policy response from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This is underscored by the increase in 1-year inflation expectations to 3.4%, which is significantly above the RBNZ's target range. Per the full note source, such a shift could bolster the NZD as traders adjust their outlook on interest rates.
Supporting this view, the 2-year inflation expectations have also ticked up to 2.5%, indicating a broader consensus among market participants about persistent inflation. This data is critical as it suggests that inflationary pressures may be more entrenched than previously thought, potentially prompting the RBNZ to act sooner rather than later.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for NZD/USD is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notably, jpmorgan has set a target of 1.10 for March 2026, while bofa is more cautious, with a lower target of 1.04 for the same tenor.
This outlook aligns with the broader market sentiment, as the desk's view reflects a more hawkish bias compared to bofa's conservative stance. Given the recent data, the desk's call is positioned at the upper end of the consensus range, suggesting a potential for upward movement in NZD/USD if inflation expectations continue to rise.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with a bullish outlook on NZD/USD include jpmorgan and others who anticipate a tightening of monetary policy in response to rising inflation. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, expecting a more subdued response from the RBNZ.
Traders should also keep an eye on the AUD/NZD pair, as shifts in RBNZ policy could have spillover effects on Australian monetary policy, particularly given the interconnectedness of the two economies. Additionally, the trajectory of NZD/USD will likely be influenced by broader trends in commodity prices and global inflation metrics.
Market Implications
Traders should watch for potential shifts in NZD/USD, particularly if inflation expectations continue to rise and prompt a hawkish response from the RBNZ. Key levels to monitor include the upper end of the consensus range at 1.075, which could be tested in the near term.
From the original
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectations Q2 2026: 2.5% prior 2.4% 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.4% prior 2.6% Preview and impications here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, May 13, 2026 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Related speeches
4 itemsEconomic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, May 13, 2026
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's upcoming quarterly Survey of Inflation Expectations is poised to be a critical indicator of inflation psychology, as highlighted in the recent analysis from Westpac. Per the full note [source], the survey's two-year ahead measure will be particularly scrutinized, as it reflects medium-term inflation expectations that could influence monetary policy decisions. With inflation pressures broadening across sectors, a confirmation of rising expectations could compel the RBNZ to reassess its current policy stance. This aligns with our view that the market should prepare for potential shifts in rate expectations ahead of the survey's release.
RBNZ Gov Breman expects higher near term inflation and weak growth
The desk interprets RBNZ Governor Breman's recent comments as indicative of a cautious outlook for New Zealand's economy, with expectations of higher near-term inflation and subdued growth. Per the full note [source], Breman anticipates that house prices will remain flat, with only a slight increase over time, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. The consensus view among analysts suggests a range of expectations for the NZD/USD, with our target positioned at 1.075, which aligns with the cautious sentiment expressed by Breman. Traders should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve, especially with key economic indicators on the horizon.
RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% but majority now see hikes coming by end-September
RBNZ preview: A closer call than markets expect
The desk views the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision as more contentious than current market pricing suggests. Per the full note from ING Economics, the RBNZ's monetary policy deliberations could hinge on recent inflation data and the broader economic outlook, potentially challenging expectations for a steady approach. With the RBNZ's OCR currently at 5.50%, the risk of a hawkish surprise looms should inflationary pressures remain persistent, as highlighted by a recent CPI reading showing 6.1% year-on-year growth. The absence of scheduled economic events complicates the current landscape, leaving traders to navigate evolving macroeconomic indicators in lieu of formal guidance.
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