Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, May 13, 2026

What the desk is arguing

The desk believes that the upcoming Survey of Inflation Expectations from the RBNZ is likely to show an increase in inflation expectations, which could have significant implications for monetary policy. Per the full note source, the survey is seen as a key test of whether recent price increases are becoming entrenched in the economy.

Westpac analysts have noted that inflation expectations were already on an upward trajectory prior to the recent rise in oil prices, suggesting that the survey results will be crucial in determining the RBNZ's next steps. If the two-year ahead measure reflects a further increase, it may signal a shift in inflation psychology that could necessitate a policy response.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for NZD/USD is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Key firms contributing to this consensus include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)

This view aligns with jpmorgan, which anticipates a stronger NZD based on rising inflation expectations, while bofa holds a more cautious stance, placing their target at the lower end of the range. The desk's call is positioned towards the upper bound of the consensus spread, indicating a bullish outlook.

How other firms see it

Firms such as jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their expectations for rising inflation, suggesting a potential upward adjustment in NZD/USD. Conversely, bofa and deutsche are more skeptical, anticipating that inflation pressures may not lead to immediate policy changes.

Market participants should also monitor the NZD/AUD pair, as it may reflect the broader implications of RBNZ policy shifts and inflation expectations. Additionally, the AUD/USD trajectory could provide insights into regional economic dynamics that intersect with this thesis.

What the calendar says

With the RBNZ's Survey of Inflation Expectations due shortly, traders should be prepared for potential volatility in NZD/USD as the results are released. This event could significantly influence market positioning ahead of the RBNZ's next monetary policy meeting.