The Middle East war and Europe’s energy dependence

Chief Economist's Corner: The Middle East war shapes EU's future energy policy

War in the Middle East and its economic impact

In charts: Three scenarios for energy, macro and markets

The desk posits that the ongoing Middle East conflict is likely to exert upward pressure on energy prices, which in turn could influence inflation and central bank policies, particularly in developed economies. Per the full note [source], this scenario suggests that oil and gas markets may experience heightened volatility, with implications for FX markets as traders adjust to shifting macroeconomic indicators. Current positioning indicates a cautious approach, with traders bracing for potential disruptions in energy supply. The consensus among major firms reflects a range of expectations, with specific targets indicating a divergence in outlooks on currency pairs influenced by energy prices.

Directional Economics CEEMEA: Energy Shock 2.0 – who breaks, who bends?

Lead — the desk argues that the ongoing energy crisis in CEEMEA markets is beginning to reveal significant structural weaknesses among certain economies, particularly those heavily reliant on energy exports. Per the full note from ING Economics, this 'Energy Shock 2.0' could result in diverging economic fates for these countries. With natural gas prices fluctuating and geopolitical tensions renewing, traders must remain alert to both fundamental shifts and market positioning signals that could impact currency valuations in the region.