The pound will not like Burnham as UK prime minister - Credit Agricole
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Neutral | 1.3500 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.5000 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.3700 |
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The wheels have been set in motion already and with Streeting backing out, Burnham looks to be the uncontested favourite to take over as UK prime minister next. While GBP/USD has recovered a bit today as Starmer doesn't drag on the political uncertainty, Credit Argicole is in wit
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The desk views the potential shifts in UK fiscal policy under newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham as a critical factor influencing GBP liquidity dynamics. Per the full note from ing-think, Burnham's ambitious agenda is likely to be tempered by stringent fiscal rules, suggesting a moderate Autumn Budget ahead. This is echoed in our consensus targets for GBP/USD, which currently rests at 1.3500, reflecting a stable but cautious outlook across varying firm forecasts. The lack of high-impact calendar events over the next month strengthens the case for a steady market environment without drastic volatility.
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