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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
From the original
Following a relatively calm holiday shortened trading week with little to no developments on the tariff front, Jason updates on where tariff negotiations stand, and what to look out for in the near-term. We also recap last week’s macro developments, spanning retail sales to Q1 co
The desk believes that the renewed focus on tariffs by the U.S. administration could introduce volatility in foreign exchange markets, particularly for commodities and currencies linked to them. Per the full note [source], tariffs on steel and aluminum, while not unprecedented, signal potential shifts in broader trade policy that financial markets are keenly monitoring. This sentiment is underscored by traders digesting recent employment data, with the January jobs report indicating a stable labor market. All eyes are also on upcoming inflation figures, which could further influence market strategies and positions.
Lead — The desk believes the current U.S. tariff announcements are likely to escalate market volatility and have significant ramifications for currency flows, particularly in relation to the USD. Per the full note from UBS, the markets are reacting negatively with S&P 500 futures declining around 1.5% immediately following the announcement. This negative sentiment is compounded by uncertainty surrounding AI investment trends due to developments related to DeepSeek. As traders assess these factors, positioning in key currency pairs may shift, reflecting broader risk aversion and liquidity constraints.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 36 desks — FX, oil & gold
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