UBS sees euro recovering to $1.16 by year-end, says slide to $1.11 overshoots fundamentals - investingLive
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UBS sees euro recovering to $1.16 by year-end, says slide to $1.11 overshoots fundamentals investingLive
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4 itemsUBS sees euro recovering to $1.16 by year-end, says slide to $1.11 overshoots fundamentals
UBS is buying EUR/USD weakness, arguing the slide from 1.17 to near 1.11 has overshot fundamentals and calling for a recovery to 1.16 by end-2026. Per the full note [source], the desk pins the drop on sentiment — stronger US data, diesel-export-ban chatter, rising global bond yields and French budget worries — rather than a deteriorating euro-area economy. The call rests on three legs: October Fed hike bets nearly fully priced out, Brent approaching $80 by next summer, and a French budget deal likely via Article 49.3 that would narrow OAT-Bund spreads. That 1.16 target sits exactly on our cross-firm consensus median for Dec-26, with spot at 1.1253 leaving roughly 3% of upside. No high-impact calendar events sit in the way over the next 30 days, so the trade's catalysts are spread-driven and headline-dependent.
UBS predicts EUR/USD at 1.20. Here’s why - Investing.com
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